One highly unusual and two not-so-usual incidents took place recently, both linked to core national security issues and the upcoming visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. One was the news that the Taliban had reportedly slashed and destroyed nearly 80 percent of the poppy crop in what is certainly an unprecedented action. The second is of an equally unprecedented seizure of methamphetamine worth Rs 12,000 crore off the coast of Kochi, originating from Pakistan. Frightening, considering the massive amounts of money involved, and the reach of Pakistani networks into the innards of our cities. If the Taliban action holds, Pakistani networks could fill the gap with synthetic drugs, which would fuel their coffers. All this happening as other Europe and US-based cartels also reach India, as apparent in the recent largest-ever seizure of LSD worth millions, negotiated through a dark net transaction. The narco threat seems to be shifting, and intensifying.
Destruction of crops
In April 2022, Taliban supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada decreed that cultivation of the poppy was strictly prohibited. He also banned the production, use or transportation of any narcotics whatsoever, including cannabis, hashish and meth. The ban was issued at a time when the poppy crop was ready for harvesting, causing hundreds to lose any means of livelihood. Scepticism was inevitable as reliable analysis noted halfhearted implementation, and the trade of opiates continuing. In fact, UN agencies noted that opium cultivation increased by a third over 2021. This year, however, the Taliban — which means the Interior Ministry controlled by Sirajuddin Haqqani and his men — seem to have taken concrete action. Accompanied by the media, Taliban fighters were seen destroying crops by hand in a slow and steady action. Reports backed by satellite surveys seem to point to a drastic reduction of nearly 80 percent over last year. If this is even partially true, it’s quite unprecedented. That the Taliban would risk the destruction of a standing poppy crop, rather than preventing the sowing in the first place and risking anger among people seems to indicate some pressure to act and possibly an expectation of heavy rewards. Taliban mid and low-level commanders are at most risk and are also most aware of the poppy harvesting periods and the money involved. Meanwhile, farmers have begun a shift to wheat, which is hardly likely to be as remunerative, perhaps ironically due to the ‘aid’ shipments of wheat arriving from countries including India. Something is clearly happening and it could be a game-changer.
The flowing meth or sheesha
Meanwhile, another ban is reported to have been more effectively applied. Production of meth (or methamphetamine) had soared 600 percent between 2018-2019, ever since it was found that using local plants Ephedra, to produce the base chemical ephedrine was far cheaper, effectively halving costs. As experts note, the boom was huge, with some 11,886 cubic metres of dried ephedra seen in late 2021 at the main Abdul Wadood market at Bakwa, in Farah province, enough to produce an estimated 220 metric tons of meth. When the Taliban took over in 2021, they announced a ban, which led to a huge increase in price that had dropped precipitately due to massive stocks. That led to suspicion that the whole was being rigged. Detailed satellite imagery by ALCIS however indicates that by last year, the same market showed an inventory of zero. Further, raids sanctioned by the Governor of Farah province seem to have driven the message home. No more ephedrine in Farah at least. It is unclear if this shortfall is being met by labs elsewhere. But a sharp climb in prices seems to indicate that the market is in a panic.
Inevitable Pakistan connect
The massive meth catch in Kochi worth billions has been traced back to a Pakistani don Haji Salim Baloch, who has been active in the area for some time. He is known to operate off the Makran coast but may be based in Karachi, the home to other gangsters including the infamous Dawood Ibrahim. His methods are simple. Existing smuggling routes between Afghanistan to Pakistan and Iran, moving of humans, opiates or any contraband has long been in operation. He has access to a fleet of boats, both dhows and large ships — called ‘mother ships’ — which anchor off the Maldives, at a point well out of reach of Indian eyes and unload the cargo to smaller dhows. Coordination is further down the line and includes Pakistanis lodged in jail in Sri Lanka as well as the local drug mafia. The Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) has also arrested several Sri Lankan nationals from a special camp at Tiruchirapalli for allegedly smuggling drugs and arms to revive the activities of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). His consignments were marked with the use of sequential numbers like 777 (or 7777) which, according to the UN, has also been found in the Russian Federation and in Central Asia. It is unclear what this number signifies but it certainly points to the huge operations involved, and very big money indeed. There’s more, but the point is this. Mid-Day has listed the seizures associated with Salim, which are all of heroin. Why has the drug baron shifted to meth? The key point also is that his operations would be well known to Pakistani intelligence, not to mention the Frontier Corps, which mans the borders. If the Taliban are indeed cracking down on meth, it may be that these operations are now moving to Pakistan.
The ingress into India
The security threat arises from the networks within. Take the Pakistani syndicate which sent in about 3000 kg of heroin through Mundra in September 2021. Arrests by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) indicate the reach of the network to states as apart as Gujarat, West Bengal, Vijayawada shell company, and a posh club in Delhi. First, that’s a lot of people and a lot of contacts. Second, as the Indian economy grows so does the market for drugs, with the UN also pointing out that India is one of the largest single markets for opiates, with a 157 percent increase in 2019 over the previous year. Third, India remains a major supplier of precursor chemicals like acetic anhydride, a fact that points to a dangerous linkage. In addition, the US has pointed to Mexican drug cartel activity in India, while the presence of US or Europe-based gangs is apparent in the largest-ever seizure of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) just recently.
In short, India has become a node for narcotics, that meshes India and the US — both huge narcotics-consuming states — together in terms of countering the menace. This is not just about security, though that threat is considerable given the linkages of narcotics to weapons seizures, and the inevitable terrorist overlap, but also a huge threat to our economic hopes. Our burgeoning population — with 65 percent being under 35 — is hardly going to be a dividend and a force multiplier as narcotics make its way to the doorsteps of schools. The issue needs to be considered as a top level national security threat, and included in forthcoming Indo-US dialogue. Such an interaction also needs to be considered as an opportunity. The destruction of the poppy crop by the Taliban certainly seems to have gone further than ever before. The challenge is however to sustain this, as starvation looms. The immediate need is to tailor aid policy so that Afghan wheat growing, which is being encouraged, is not driven out of the market by aid shipments of grain including from India, and ensuring that all alternative Afghan crops are brought to market. That needs some coordination of policy on Afghanistan, with India in the lead since Delhi is far more acceptable to Kabul than the West.
The US and Indian intelligence also need to work closely on the rapidly increasing narcotics activity from Pakistan, despite the efforts of the Combined Task Force that operates in the Arabian Sea with its centre in Bahrain. Indian intelligence agencies are already overloaded with ‘current’ threats like China, however, they need to set up dedicated teams including technical intelligence to monitor, interdict, and finally focus on this threat that threatens to erode us from within. The bottom line? Clean up your own house. Get those kingpins, not the peddlers. In short, go after the money.
The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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