As Gujarat heads towards polls, CNN-IBN's Political Editor Bhupendra Chaubey answers questions on everything you wanted to know about Gujarat Assembly Elections 2007 in a live chat on IBNLive. Here is the full transcript of the chat:
Rahul Sharda: Do you think if Modi loses, all politicians will think hard work and good administration does not translate to votes and it will have impact on the way politics is run in India?
Bhupendra Chaubey: It’s a big IF that you are talking about. I think the Gujarat elections are about development versus perception. Unlike say a Chandrababu Naidu, Modi has to battle between what he has done for the state and what people think he has done for it. Either ways, the results will have a long term impact on our polity.
Chandra: Mr Chaubey, congrats on your one-on-one with Modi. So what do you foresee about the Gujarat polls?
Bhupendra Chaubey: It’s a million dollar question. Honestly I think he is on a weak wicket. The only thing that can really take him past the post is a solid turnout. But how will that happen, given the fact that his own party is against him?
Haribaskaran: What is the possibility of an Hung Assembly in Gujarat? If so, is there any possibility of a coalition government?
Bhupendra Chaubey: No possibility so far. Gujarat has always been a two horse race. Also the reason why people are talking about a hung assembly is that maybe the rebels will win a lot of seats. I don’t think the likes of Suresh Mehta, Gordhan Zadaphiya and even Keshubhai Patel are today in a position to wrest seats away from BJP. But certainly they will eat into a lot of votes.
Woke up to chat with you in Dallas: Ok, accepted BJP divides on religious lines but Congress is dividing on caste lines. Which one is worse?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Both are equally bad. Whether it’s Kham or its Ramayana versus Kuran, the devil is the same in both cases.
Maya (Zurich): Is Modi more communal than Asauddin Owaisi, Mehbooba Mufti, Jagdeesh Tytler?
Bhupendra Chaubey: A person who is communal is communal. I don’t know whether a Mehbooba Mufti could be kept in this league, but the rest of all the other names that you have got are as communal as anyone else.
Dharmesh Doshi: Do you personally feel that there is any progress in terms of infrastructure, economic condition, social condition, power, agriculture in Gujarat by Modi government?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Yes, you have to admit that there has been progress made in all these areas that you are talking about. I am told that he has also done a lot of work in increasing power generation in the state. The overall condition appears to be much better than say the year 2000.
Narinder Sethi What is your gut feeling regarding the outcome of Gujarat election?
Bhupendra Chaubey: My gut feeling is that he will win. But the ground political reality seems to suggest that he is on his way out. Not sure whether I should listen to my heart or mind.
Manish: If EC takes cognizance of the comment made by Modi, what could happen next?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Don’t think the EC can do anything. Can you remember the last occasion when the EC would have taken any action against politicians who cross the thin red line? Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Uma Bharti, Digvijay Singh, Bal Thackeray, Vilasrao Deshmukh, all have been guilty of name calling. Yet they were only censured. Think the same will happen this time too.
Bhavesh L Kookani Do you honestly think that IBN has been objective in its Gujarat poll coverage? Isn't there an obvious anti-Modi/pro-Congress flavour in the reporting?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Not at all Bhavesh, in fact on the contrary I feel that we have been the only network which has dared to show the actual reality of Gujarat. The reality is that the situation on the ground for an ordinary Gujarati is much better. We have tried to move away from the horror of 2002 and talk about the Gujarat that’s supposed to be a vibrant Gujarat in 2007.
Yogesh What you think SC verdict will help Modi or not?
Bhupendra Chaubey: It’s an interesting thought. When Tehelka did a story showing how the VHP people admitted to Modi's role in Gujarat, there was a feeling that the more people talk about Godhra and communalism, the more the elections will tilt in his favour. I tend to agree with this line of thinking. Modi is looking for a provocative issue in these elections. If the SC comes down heavily against him, he is going to benefit
Prem: Sir, what does a defeat/a victory signify for the nation and democracy as a whole?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Fascist forces can never be an asset for any mature democracy. Any politician who wants to rule on the basis of religion cannot be welcome. In that sense, a defeat for him will surely be beneficial for the nation as a whole.
Gopalacharyaramadas: Do you think the people of West Bengal should also think on development lines and throw out the Left Parties on the plank of development? Yesterday Mr Prakash Karat said the he is now withdrawing support to UPA because of the fear of helping Modiji the best chief minister India has ever seen. Mr Jyothi Basu ruled WB for 25 years. His son became rich. People are still starving. They are voting out of fear. PM should first of all use the fear language against Mr Budha and Jyothi Basu.
Bhupendra Chaubey: To me there is no difference when Modi said after Godhra “every action has an equal and opposite reaction” and Budhadeb Bhattacharjee saying “We paid them back in the same coin”. Both are equally autocratic, and dictatorial. The only difference is that in West Bengal, the left has become synonymous with struggle, and that’s why the party continues to do well.
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Premsai Agreed that Modi was/has been wrong throughout, how does he still manage to win?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Well he won one election in 2002 because of a communal flare up. No doubt about that. But by the way did you know that when Modi was working within the BJP organisation in Delhi, as incharge of Himachal and Haryana, he had lost both the elections?
Manish: Would you be happy or sad if Modi wins the elections?
Bhupendra Chaubey: I would be sad that a man who believes in development has lost, but I will be happy that a dictator has lost. In a democracy, there is no space for a dictator.
Shantaram Given the reality that there is internal conflicts with in BJP how would an election that’s being fought on a single agenda that is "Modi", impact the future course of politics in India?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Narendra Modi has already replaced LK Advani as the posterboy of Hindutva? The two leaders are similar in many ways. Advani's constituency is Gandhinagar in Gujarat, Modi looks at himself as the tallest Gujarati leader in the BJP. If he wins, he will get a greater role in Delhi, but if he loses, well the BJP will be on the brink of a major disaster. Gujarat is the party's last bastion. With UP already out of their reach, Gujarat is their last hope.
Shailendra: Why are the intellectuals in Gujarat are so silent this time? Gujarati's are a spread out community. But we hardly see any response from renowned Gujaratis about the exposes, about Modi and about the communal tension. I suggest IBN should do a programme on the response of Expat Gujaratis about the state of affairs in Gujrat and Modi.
Bhupendra Chaubey: We did one show with Rajdeep. And you will be surprised that a lot of people actually felt that Modi was a great ruler.
Abhinav: On the ground in Baroda, it looks like a clean sweep for BJP, with lot of people fearing a Muslim backlash if Congress comes back. Is this the case even in the villages or is it just an urban mindset?
Bhupendra Chaubey: It’s just an urban mindset.
Chandra: From your own response "Yes you have to admit that there has been progress made in all these areas that you are talking about. I am told that he has also done a lot of work in increasing power generation in the state. The overall condition appears to be much better than say the year 2000", why don’t we have the government continuing?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Because Narendra Modi is the sort of politician with whom everything is in gray. There is nothing absolutely right or absolutely wrong about him. It’s always something in the middle. The problem is that his own party men are against him. I find it difficult to believe that a man can win elections in India minus an issue and minus his party.
GVS In a nutshell who will win the election?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Congress, Bharat Solanki will be the Chief Minister.
Gopalacharyaramadas: What is your opinion about Narmada Project. I am told that the water problem has been solved to a great extent in Sourashtra Region. What is your opinion about the Narmada Project? Please also tell me how far it will help in translating into votes.
Bhupendra Chaubey: It’s a great project. It’s helped things a lot. But can the Narmada project overcome the apparent disillusionment of Patels here? That will determine the results.
Sunil: Having visited Gujarat recently, how do you find the mood of the people out there? Do they feel Modi has done good? Or do they want change?
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Bhupendra Chaubey: In the urban areas there is a sense of satisfaction. But if you move away from cities like Surat, Rajkot or Vadodara, you see that people are talking about parivartan.
Ratnakar: Don’t you think that if he loses than he will be out of politics forever, cause BJP itself is taking a lot of risk in fielding him while having a lot of dissidents?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Without a doubt. A loss for Modi will be a huge setback.
Augustine Dias I tend to see a divide between the RSS and MODI in these elections, if yes, what impact will it have on the election results.
Bhupendra Chaubey: Yes Augustine, you are right, the RSS has decided not to come to Modi's aid. The reason being that Modi wants to be in power without offering some kind of support to his affiliate organisations. In Indian politics it isn’t possible. George Bush requires war to keep his army and economy in good shape. Modi needs something too.
Sreehari What’s your personal view on Modi, as you had interviewed him recently?
Bhupendra Chaubey: An extremely aggressive and combative politician, who wants to reach out directly to the voter. In ways he is like Dhirubhai Ambani. Ambani started the cult of equity by getting rid of the small trader in between and interacting directly with the clients. Modi wants to interact directly with the voters and take out the MPs, MLAs or bureaucrats in between.
John: Bhupendra, what do see as one major difference between the Gujarati electorate and electorates elsewhere? And is that inability to understand the electorate making it more difficult for everyone to predict the outcome of the election?
Bhupendra Chaubey: The Gujarati electorate is on the contrary the easiest to understand. They are very strong on the entrepreneurial side. So they want someone who will always help them get more money. That’s why Modi is believed to be so popular.
Anu: Is BJP's strength over-rated in Gujarat, considering that the percentage of vote difference between the two main parties is less than 4 per cent in the last Lokh Sabha poll?
Bhupendra Chaubey: You may have a point there. The BJP is overrated because it has a leader like Modi, who is a towering figure. In fact even in 2002, there were at least 30 seats where the margin of victory was just over 200.
Sanket Sheth: I am from Gujarat and we Gujaratis believe that Mr Modi has done great job for the state. Congress hasn’t done anything for the state. So we think that Congress can’t win in Gujarat. As an outsider how can you predict the results of the election?
Bhupendra Chaubey: I am just going by the reality on the ground. Remember the old adage, the one who is the most proud always finishes last.
Chandra: You would have got a lot of vicinity in the land of polls and as a journalists lots of interaction with various lines of people from business man to rags to politicians to college students. Do you see there will be a good voters turnouts?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Yes, I do believe that there will be good voter turn out, but will it be good enough to see him through, I don’t know.
Vijay: Take little off from Modi and the election. Are you enjoying Gujarati food and hospitality?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Ha ha Vijay, I went to Agashey in Ahmedabad. Nice food.
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Test1234: BJP and Congress: which one is better political party and how?
Bhupendra Chaubey: There is no difference between BJP and the Congress. Both are equally poor or equally good depending on which side of the political divide you are on.
Vaishnav: Will Uma Bharti's party cut into BJP's vote bank?
Bhupendra Chaubey: She has withdrawn. She could have had a role to play. Not anymore.
Dhruv Mullick: Is Modi anti-Muslim?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Straight answer, yes he is.
Kapil: As people of Saurashtra are not much impressed with Mr Modi as he has not focused on farmers as he did on industries. This lack of interest towards farmers of Saurashtra can harm Modi's agenda?
Bhupendra Chaubey: That’s the reason why Modi is worried that he will lose out here in Saurashtra. The Sizable Patel vote, the farmers’ hassle, all this combined together could spell trouble for him.
Aniruddha What is latest trend in Gujarat election?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Journalists say that Modi is losing, others say he is winning. Which view do you want to see?
Rakesh: Do you think if he win with the thumping majority he will be the pm candidate and very popular politician in India?
Bhupendra Chaubey: He will have a greater role to play at the Centre. May not be in these forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, but certainly in the next one.
Seshwar: Do you think Sonia would be censured for her ‘Merchants of Death’ comment and Digvijay for his ‘Hindu Terrorism’? Also, why is the media interpreting what Modi "meant" by his comments on Sohrabuddin instead of only showing what happened at the meeting? Is it the media only "reporting" or is it seeing the inner meaning in what was said?
Bhupendra Chaubey: I think the media in this case has been played over by Modi. The truth is that he was talking about Sohrabudin Sheikh in his rallies. Then suddenly one day one prominent national daily put it on its front page. It immediately kicked up a storm.
Gagan Go you think Modi will overtake everyone?
Bhupendra Chaubey: He has already overtaken everyone else.
Sreehari I am confused. Everybody knows that he supported the Gujarat riots and I also think that but economically Gujarat has grown under him it seems and how is that many in Gujarat support him?
Bhupendra Chaubey: The pace of economic development cannot wash away the horrors of 2002. That’s the dilemma before the Gujarati voting public.
Siddharth Kumar: Depending upon the turn-out during canvassing, the number of rebels against Modi increasing day-by- day, do you think the Congress can get away with the elections by a majority ?
Bhupendra Chaubey: I personally believe that Modi will lose. The Congress could very well win.
Shreikanth: Gujarat seems to be the most volatile place in India. There might be cases that Government has its own misgivings. What has the opposition done so far. Why is this whole tamasha being unveiled at the time of elections. The Hindutva card is not just by BJP looks like cong leaders are fine with it. we hear news of BJP men joining Congress. Their deep rooted fanatism is still going to be there even if they switch parties. Whom do u think would be the best to give governance in Gujarat.
Bhupendra Chaubey: There are several people in Gujarat who feel that Modi has given a very good governance. I also agree with you that even the Congress indulges in what’s known as soft Hindutva. The real trouble is that the Gujarati society as a whole seems to be deeply divided in this one.
Sukhesh: Who do you think will win in Gujarat this time around based on the ground realities?
Bhupendra Chaubey: Modi is ahead, yes, But I get the sense that he is losing steam. Thank you very much for joining me in this chat.
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