Hyderabad: In what may be seen as a big day for Andhra Pradesh, the President's deadline to the state Assembly to return the draft Telangana Bill to him ends on Thursday.
On Wednesday, Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy had requested a three-week extension of the deadline. However, sources in the Home Ministry said that the Centre was likely to present the Telangana Bill in Parliament even if the state does not pass a resolution.
It is likely that the Andhra Speaker will return the draft Bill to the President without a 'yes' or a 'no' from the Assembly. The Speaker is likely to just encapsulate what the MLAs speak on the Bill. The President will then forward the Speaker's note and the draft Bill to the Home Ministry.
The Home Ministry will attempt to bring in a Cabinet note on February 7 seeking to present the Bill before Parliament. The new state will come into existence once the Telangana Bill is passed by Parliament.
Meanwhile, in the state, all eyes are on the final move of the Centre. The YSR Congress, led by Jagan Mohan Reddy, has vehemently opposed the division.
The Congress, however, is divided, with its Telangana MLAs and MPs backing the demand for bifurcation and the CM himself opposing it.
Reddy has even issued threats to the Congress high command that he will quit if the new state is created. According to some reports, he may quit before Parliament meets to debate the Telangana Bill. He is already in talks with anti-Telangana Congress leaders and may even float his own political party.
The TDP's stand, however, is ambiguous. TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu has been demanding justice for both the regions. He is likely to tie-up with the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
The TRS, the pro-Telangana party of K Chandrashekhara Rao, has already warned the Centre of dire consequences if the new state is not created before the Lok Sabha polls.
Andhra Pradesh is going to see both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections held simultaneously in the next three months.
Likely scenario in Delhi:
- Andhra Assembly Speaker will send the bill back without 'Yes' or 'No'
- His report will have the main points of the debate in the AP Assembly.
- The President will have to send it to the Parliament via Union Cabinet
- Union Cabinet to place it before Parliament
- Once Parliament clears it, it will go to the President
- President will sign the bill creating a new state
Likely scenario in Andhra Pradesh:
- An upset Kiran Kumar Reddy may quit as Chief Minister
- He may even dissolve the Assembly
- He may even launch a new party
- TRS-Congress may fight the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls together in Telangana
- New state would be a big boost for YSR Congress. Likely to consolidate votes in Seemandhra.
- TDP may face confusion over aligning with the BJP in both Seemandhra and Telangana
- The creation of Telangana may once again throw the life out of gear in Seemandhra
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