Akola Lok Sabha Elections 2024: In Own Bastion, BJP Faces Prakash Ambedkar Comeback, Cong's Maratha Candidate

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The altered political landscape and the strategy of the Congress to field a Maratha candidate may dent the prospects of the BJP nominee pitted against BR Ambedkar's grandson Prakash Ambedkar, trying a comeback

A triangular contest is on the cards in the BJP stronghold of Akola, which is going to polls in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 26. The altered political landscape and the strategy of the Congress to field a Maratha candidate may dent the prospects of the saffron nominee pitted against BR Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash Ambedkar, trying a comeback.

The erstwhile bastion of the Congress, Akola constituency in western Vidarbha had sent a heavyweight leader like Vasant Sathe to Lok Sabha, who had served as a union minister in 1980-82. The BJP breached this Congress citadel in 1989 with Pandurang Fundkar winning the contest. Barring 1996 and 1999, when Prakash Ambedkar was elected as MP from Akola, the BJP has retained its stronghold on the constituency.

Akola comprises six assembly segments, five of which are in the Akola district while one is located in Washim district. The assembly segments are Akot (BJP), Balapur (Shiv Sena UBT), Akola West (vacant, earlier with BJP), Akola East (BJP), Murtizapur (BJP) and Risod (Congress).

It presently represented by the BJP’s four-time MP Sanjay Dhotre. This time, he has made way for his son Anup Dhotre. The Congress, which is a constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, has given a ticket to Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, unlike in 2014 and 2019 when the party had fielded a Muslim nominee, Hidayatulla Patel. Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi leader Prakash Ambedkar, who has been a two-time MP from the constituency, is also in the poll contest for Akola.

Political observers said factors like changed caste dynamics with the entry of Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, and reorganised political alliances in Maharashtra may dent the BJP’s prospects this time. Two strong regional influences – the Shiv Sena and NCP – have recently undergone splits that change the game to a large extent.

Senior journalist and political observer Shaukat Ali Mirsaheb is of the view that the main contest lies between Anup Dhotre and Abhay Patil.

“Anup Dhotre has inherited a strong BJP network as his father is a party veteran. The Dhotre senior enjoys a strong network in Akola district also,” he said.

He said the Congress candidate is a strong contender, who is active in the social field and enjoys a good connection with all sections of the society including the Maratha community. “Anup Dhotre is politically inexperienced which may also favour the Congress,” he added.

According to Mirsaheb, the ‘Modi factor’ won’t work in Akola this time. “Voters are worried over inflation, unemployment, MSP, and agricultural distress. There are complaints about people being left out of direct benefit transfer (DBT) and about the PM Awas Yojana,” he said.

Speaking about the poll prospects of Ambedkar, Mirsaheb said the Dalit leader has been contesting from Akola for the last 25 years. “But there is a question mark on whether Muslim votes will be transferred to Ambedkar,” he said.

BJP

Akola has been a BJP stronghold since 2004. For 20 years straight, the constituency has voted for the saffron party and its candidate Sanjay Dhotre. The four-time MP has now made way for his son Anup Dhotre to fight the election.

Anup finds himself contesting a crucial election in Maharashtra owing to his father’s ill-health. In fact, Sanjay’s health has even been used by the Congress to mount an attack against the BJP, in what could boomerang for the grand old party in a big way.

Caste rules the roost in Akola. The BJP has been winning the seat primarily because Sanjay is a strong Maratha leader, and the community and its sub-castes have been voting for him since 2014.

For the past two elections, the Congress fielded a Muslim candidate in Akola, hoping to benefit from a polarised electorate. Instead, it had to face massive drubbings, even finishing third in the 2019 elections, behind Prakash Ambedkar, who secured the second-highest vote share of about 25 per cent. The BJP, on the other hand, took the constituency home with double the vote share.

But, the BJP indeed faces a significant challenge in Akola this time. For starters, the political dynamics have drastically changed since 2019. The Shiv Sena and NCP are split into different factions. The Congress, backed by NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and Shiv Sena (UBT), has fielded a Maratha candidate, Abhay Patil, from the constituency. Effectively, this is the first time that the opposition is actively looking to breach the BJP’s Maratha support base and split the vote that the saffron party has dominated for decades.

The Congress and its allies are also hoping to cash in on the resentment brewing within the Maratha community against the BJP on the issue of reservation. Although the state government yielded to demands for Maratha reservation earlier this year, the constitutional validity of the renewed quota system is facing a judicial test.

Recently, the BJP’s house in Akola was also seen to be in disorder. This was after senior leader Narayan Gavhankar rebelled and filed his nomination as an independent. He has been working for the BJP in Akola since the 1980s and he alleged that he has repeatedly been overlooked because he is not a Maratha. Following parleys with Devendra Fadnavis, Gavhankar eventually withdrew from the race.

There is also a level of anti-incumbency against the sitting MP, although now that his son has been fielded by the BJP, it remains to be seen how such resentment plays out on polling day. Net-net, the advantage is with the BJP as the fight in Akola is triangular.

The Congress, which finished third in the 2019 elections, has a long distance to cover in terms of vote share. The best it can hope for is that it significantly dents the Maratha vote base, thereby giving Ambedkar an opening to win the seat with his Dalit-Muslim support base.

Congress

The broad strategy of the Congress in this election is to make contests hyper-local. Party candidate Dr Abhay Patil is a respected leader who is attracting crowds on his broad development plank and speaking on local issues that need to be addressed. Largely seen as an educated face, his biggest advantage could be his caste as he belongs to the Maratha-Kunbi community. His efforts as a social worker are also expected to help him.

The Congress hopes to divide the Maratha vote in Akola, which has traditionally gone in favour of the BJP. Apart from that, ground inputs also suggest that a significant chunk of the Muslim votes could be headed the Congress way. A lot, however, depends on the quantum of Maratha votes the Congress can pull away from the BJP. Without a significant share of those votes, the Congress cannot hope to win the seat.

For the Congress, the most impact fielding Patil can have is in the Washim region of Akola. Despite fielding a Maratha-Kunbi, the Congress still has a long way to go, as numerically, the BJP’s influence among Marathas and the many sub-castes among them is higher.

Ultimately, the Congress is fighting the election in Akola on hope. The hope is that the Modi factor this time around will not be as significant as it was in 2014 and 2019. The Congress realises that the fight is extremely tough for it in Akola, which is why it was keen on an alliance with Ambedkar and the VBA.

If the alliance would have gone through, the Congress would have put its weight behind Ambedkar’s candidature from the seat, and that would prove to be a serious challenge for the BJP. Instead, the Congress announced its candidate only on April 1, leaving Patil with less than a month to engage in hardcore campaigning.

VBA

The fight in Akola is a solid three-way contest between the BJP, Congress and VBA. Until the BJP wrested the seat from him in 2004, Prakash Ambedkar was its MP since 1998. The constituency has a Muslim-Dalit voter base of about 36 per cent, making it a fertile ground for the VBA.

Ambedkar was defeated by Sanjay in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 elections. In 2009, Ambedkar lost by a margin of 64,848 votes and, in 2019, by 2,17,696 votes. In 2019, Dhotre bagged 5,54,444 votes while Ambedkar finished second by scoring 2,78,748 votes.

For the VBA leader, the fight in Akola is to resolve local issues and ensure development of those who have historically been on the margins of progress. He says his priority will be on ensuring employment and, to do that, he seeks to tap into the agro-based industry. He is also promising reservation for OBCs in promotions.

In worrying news for the grandson of BR Ambedkar, the Muslim voters could favour the Congress this time. That would make defeat an inevitability for the VBA in Akola. Therefore, to balance the equation, or at least in an attempt to do so, the VBA has managed to rope in Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to support it here. Owaisi has urged his workers and supporters in Akola to vote for Ambedkar. Whether this will result in any meaningful vote transfer on ground remains to be seen.

Ambedkar has also been upping the ante against the Congress, and has alleged that state unit chief Nana Patole is in cahoots with the BJP, which is why a VBA-Congress tie-up is not a reality. The Congress, on the other hand, is accusing the VBA and AIMIM of being the BJP’s ‘B-team’. In an election where the Congress and VBA were expected to put up a united front against the BJP, the two parties are rather occupied taking stabs at each other. As a result, the BJP retain the edge in Akola.

Here are the key issues of the constituency:

Weak opposition: For the past 20 years, the people have been without a strong opposition. Hidayatullah Barakatullah Patel of the Congress and VBA’s Ambedkar have failed to create any impact on Sanjay Dhotre’s vote bank. Moreover, people also do not see anyone strong in the Centre that has the ability to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi for power. This has led to Akola becoming a stronghold for the BJP. According to ground reports, while the Congress candidate holds some sway, and belongs to the dominant caste, his impact on the elections remains to be seen.
Development: The region has seen little to no development that has miffed the voters. People believe that the BJP has failed to rejuvenate the region despite coming to power in the Centre. No major central government projects have started while there has been no attempt to improve the civic facilities in the region. While roads have been upgraded and maintained, people are not happy that it is the only thing the BJP has to show for itself over the last 20 years.
Welfare schemes: People are unhappy with the implementation of central schemes at the local level. One of the major schemes, PM Awas Yojana, has had a disastrous implementation. People are frustrated with delayed cheques even while the funds have been released at the Centre. According to ground reports, disbursal of cheques sometimes takes months, even years. This has upset the constituents, not with the BJP at the Centre, but with the local leadership and administration.
Unemployment and migration: Unemployment is a major issue. People have no other employment opportunities apart from the limited government jobs in the region. Lack of industries and state or central government-led projects have forced people to emigrate. According to ground reports, emigration for employment is a major issue for people in Akola. People would generally emigrate to major cities like Pune, but are unable to acclimatise in the culture and the society there. People have voiced concerns over the lack of employment opportunities and having to move to Pune for employment, but to no avail.
Caste issues: Caste is the reason why the BJP has been winning from the seat for four straight elections. Sanjay Dhotre’s vote bank has been the core of the Shiv Sena and BJP voters, ie, the Maratha vote. It is for the same reason that the Congress has also proposed Abhay Patil, who can challenge the BJP’s dominance. Ambedkar has the support from the SCs, but that is where his influence ends.
Farmer issues: The agriculture in the area is completely dependent on climate conditions as irrigation facilities are not available. As a result, almost every year, crop failure due to excessive rain or drought is expected. Farmers also have an issue with the compensation from the insurance on crop failure, which is not provided to them on time. This leads to excessive hardships and failure to return the loans taken for agriculture. These, along with other land acquisition and farmer distress issues, have also driven farmers to die by suicide.
Taxation and increase in electricity prices: People are disappointed by the increase in the municipal corporation tax in the region. Even though the government slashed the increase by 10 per cent after much agitation and protest, it is still excessive. Similarly, the tariff on electricity units have also been increased leading to higher power costs for the people and industries. This has also led to increased agitation and protests as people do not see any reason why there is a need to increase these prices even though services have remained sub-par.