Opinion | The Saffron Tide Rises: BJP’s Kerala Breakthrough Signals a New Era
Opinion | The Saffron Tide Rises: BJP’s Kerala Breakthrough Signals a New Era
BJP's success in Kerala, long considered an unbreachable Left fortress, is more than a ripple - it's a rising tide. Suresh Gopi's victory, coupled with gains across the state, reflects years of BJP work and a changing Kerala, where voters are looking beyond traditional loyalties

The conclusion of the 18th Lok Sabha elections marks a significant moment as our citizens have chosen their representatives for the upcoming five years. The BJP has much to celebrate, with one of the most notable achievements being the breakthrough in Kerala, traditionally a stronghold of the Left. This victory is the result of 75 years of dedicated hard work, persistence and effort.

The closest a Hindu right-wing leader from Kerala came to winning an election was in 1977 when K G Marar, representing the Jana Sangh, finished second in the Uduma constituency. When the Jana Sangh transformed into the Bharatiya Janata Party, Marar became the first president of the state unit. Since then, the BJP had been trying to win a seat in Kerala, struggling to break the narrative of being a communal and North Indian party.

The NDA secured its first electoral victory in Kerala when P.C. Thomas, representing the Kerala Congress (Thomas faction), won the Kottayam Lok Sabha seat. He later served as a minister in the third Vajpayee government but was subsequently disqualified by a Supreme Court verdict. In 2016, O Rajagopal became the first BJP candidate to win a seat in the Kerala Legislative Assembly, securing victory in Nemom, a constituency on the outskirts of Thiruvananthapuram. Since then, the BJP has intensified its efforts to gain representation in the Lok Sabha, steadily increasing its vote share in Kerala with each election cycle.

The NDA secured approximately 20 per cent of the vote share this time in Kerala, with the BJP leading in 11 assembly segments: Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, Nemom, Attingal, Kattakkada, Manaloor, Ollur, Thrissur, Nattika, Irinjalakuda, and Puthukkad. Furthermore, the NDA emerged as the runner-up in eight assembly constituencies: Thiruvananthapuram, Kovalam, Neyyattinkara, Kayamkulam, Haripad, Manjeshwar, Kasargod, and Palakkad. This performance signifies a notable shift in Kerala’s political landscape.

In addition to Suresh Gopi, who emerged as the clear victor in this election, the BJP also witnessed Sobha Surendran challenging the Marxist stronghold in Alleppey. Sobha’s vote share increased from 17.24 per cent to 28.3 per cent, marking the single largest increase for any candidate in Kerala. The election season introduced many other leaders who are likely to shape the future of Kerala’s politics and contribute to the state’s sociopolitical landscape in the coming years.

In Thrissur, Hindu voters make up 63.2 per cent of the population, followed by Christian voters at 21.4 per cent and Muslim voters at 15.4 per cent (according to the 2011 Census figures). This region is also known for its religious tourism, with famous temples like Guruvayur, Vadakkunnathan, and Paramekkavu attracting visitors. Additionally, Thrissur holds the title of being the cultural capital of Kerala and hosts the magnificent Thrissur Pooram, one of the largest religious events in the state.

The Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency comprises seven assembly segments: Guruvayoor, Manalur, Ollur, Thrissur, Nattika, Irinjalakuda, and Puthukkad. All seven segments have elected representatives from the Communist Party to the legislative assembly of Kerala. In the 2019 elections, the Indian National Congress received 40 per cent of the votes in this constituency, followed by the Marxist Party at 31 per cent and the BJP at 28.3 per cent. Suresh Gopi was the NDA candidate for Thrissur in 2019 and despite losing the Lok Sabha election, he continued to focus on the region and contested in the state Assembly polls of 2021.

In the 2021 assembly elections, P Balachandran of the Communist Party emerged as the winner with a vote share of 34.25 per cent, followed by Padmaja Venugopal of the INC with a 33.52 per cent vote share. Suresh Gopi finished third with a vote share of 31.30 per cent. Despite facing setbacks in two successive elections and being pushed to third position, Suresh Gopi remained steadfast. He maintained a visible presence among Thrissur’s voters and continued his humanitarian work in the region.

In 2023, Thrissur was confronted with a severe crisis. The cooperative banks had reached their peak, resulting in many individuals losing their hard-earned deposits to the Karuvannur bank scam. Suresh Gopi emerged as a champion for the people, mirroring his on-screen action-hero persona. His proactive involvement in this crisis established him as a real-life champion for the people. During the Nari Shakti Sammelan held in Thrissur in January 2024, party leadership indirectly endorsed Suresh Gopi’s candidacy. Around the same time, Padmaja Venugopal, daughter of former Kerala Chief Minister K. Karunakaran and Suresh Gopi’s former opponent in the Assembly elections, joined the BJP. Further bolstering his support, the Left-leaning independent mayor of Thrissur endorsed Suresh Gopi as the ideal representative for Thrissur. Meanwhile, Suresh Gopi continued to serve the people tirelessly. It was his unwavering dedication, determination, and strong belief in a higher power that fueled his spirit.

This serves as a valuable lesson that if one focuses on his or her work in a constituency without worrying about the outcome, the people will embrace that person as their leader when the time comes. His appeal transcended traditional barriers, garnering him support from diverse communities across caste and religion, including notable backing from Muslim women in the region.

As Left strongholds crumble one by one in India, Kerala is on its way to joining the race. Despite falling short of securing a majority, the BJP’s breakthrough in the state, symbolised by Suresh Gopi’s win, marks a significant turning point in Kerala’s political landscape.

Adarsh Kuniyillam is a policy, political and Parliamentary expert from Kerala. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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