New Delhi: Mulayam Singh Yadav, like most veterans can a make clear distinction between political adversary and competition. In deciding to go alone in UP, the Samajwadi Party president seems to have chosen the party’s long-term interests over short-term gains.
It was probably the need of the hour. Mayawati was breathing down the neck and making a strong pitch for a section of SP’s core constituency — the Muslims.
The Lucknow show of strength attended by Lalu, Sharad Yadav and Ajit Singh was followed by many rounds of back-channel talks between political managers from the Congress and the SP. Prashant Kishore met both Mulayam Singh and Chief Minister Akhilesh in this regard.
It was also becoming evident that a section of the party close to Akhilesh felt the incumbent dispensation had a fair chance of taking another shot at power if the alliance came through.
MSY by declaring all but 78 candidates has over-ruled all proponents of a mini-gatbandhan in UP. And there is a sound political logic behind it.
Pre-1989, the bulwark of Congress’s impregnable fortress that UP was rested on three pillars: Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. The three together constitute almost half of the state’s polity.
Mandal combined with mandir movement was the watershed moment.
Mulayam walked away with Muslims, BSP Dalits; and BJP with a large section of the upper castes. Congress was left with miscellaneous committed vote.
The direct beneficiaries of Congress’s decimation in UP have been these three parties who have taken turns to rule UP in the last 27 years.
The larger question for Mulayam in these elections was whether he would align with the Congress to mobilise minority votes. Had that happened, there was a distinct possibility — as it happened in Bihar — of Congress registering a high strike rate in constituencies it would contest.
Congress’s upper caste candidates — it was felt — would have been the biggest beneficiary riding on Muslim-Yadav support base while topping it up with their caste vote.
And a good performance of the Congress in UP would have set the stage for general elections 2019.
In 2009 general elections, a section of the minorities miffed with MSY’s overtures to Kalyan Singh shifted base to Congress in some pockets of UP. The difference was for everyone to see. Congress romped home in more than 20 seats.
In deciding to go alone in UP, Mulayam Singh is not willing to give Congress a toehold in the state. His party has been in power for full five years. His son Akhilesh has been the Chief Minister of UP at a young age.
A stint in Opposition would do no harm.
But an alliance with Congress can imperil SP’s long-term interest.
In the UP Mulayam knows, BJP is his political adversary. And Congress, the real competition.
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