The Bharatiya Janata Party may win a stunning 25 of West Bengal’s 42 seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, up from 18 in 2019, while the state’s ruling Trinamool Congress is expected to get only 17, according to Network18’s Mega Opinion Poll. The Congress and ally Left could go empty-handed.
The survey predicted that the BJP and TMC would get around 42% of the votes each, while the Congress and allies may get only 14%, and Others 2%.
Trinamool Congress chairperson and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee recently declared that seat-sharing talks with the Congress had failed and her party would contest the upcoming Lok Sabha polls alone in the state.
In 2019, Trinamool bagged 22 seats compared to the BJP’s 18, with respective vote percentages of 43.3 and 40.7. But in 2021, Mamata Banerjee led the TMC to a landslide victory in the assembly elections, securing an impressive 215 seats.
Despite the BJP’s vigorous campaigning, it only managed to get 77 seats. This, though, was a significant improvement on the party’s 2016 tally of a mere three seats.
The state sends the third-highest number of representatives to the 543-member Lok Sabha, trailing only Uttar Pradesh (80) and Maharashtra (48).
The survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95% of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each of the Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were selected. Five polling booths were selected in each Vidhan Sabha constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Utilising a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling.
Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geo-tagged to verify its authenticity.
A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
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