New Delhi: The post-poll survey conducted in Himachal Pradesh by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week a few days after the state went to elections shows that the two main parties - ruling BJP and Congress - are involved in a dead heat, with no clarity on who will form the next government in the state. The survey conducted from November 7 to 14 in 32 Assembly constituencies of the state reveals that while the Congress has a slight edge over the BJP in terms of vote percentage, the same cannot be said when it comes to the seats.

The seat forecast done by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, shows that both the Congress and the BJP are likely to win identical number of seats in the 68-member Assembly. According to the survey the state will witness a hung Assembly, giving the smaller parties and Independents an important say on who will form the next government.

While the Congress is likely to win 29 to 35 seats (the party had won 23 in 2007), the BJP may also end up with a similar tally of 29-35 (the party had won 41 in 2007). Other smaller parties are expected to get 2-6 seats (others had won four, which included three Independents and one by the BSP in 2007).

As the state heads for a hung Assembly, the vote percentage shows that Congress gaining two percentage points over its 2007 figures. The party had 39 per cent votes in 2007 which has climbed to 41 in 2012 even as the BJP has slipped from 44 per cent in 2007 to 40. Smaller parties have also gained two percentage points and are likely to poll about 19 per cent of the votes.

As the result day arrives, the Congress versus the BJP battle is Himachal Pradesh's closest race in the last three decades. In the Assembly elections since 1982, the winner has maintained at least a five percentage point lead over its rival, but 2012 is too close to call.

There seems to be a regional divide too as East Himachal wants the BJP government to go, the western part of the wants it to return back to power. East Himachal consists of the districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur while West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur.

But within East and West of the state also there seem to be district level variations with the Congress leading in the East Himachal (34 seats) but a close race is expected in Solan, Sirmaur, and Mandi districts. In West Himachal (34), the BJP leads overall but the Congress is expected to give it a tough fight in Kangra, Chamba, and Una districts.

Congress leader Virbhadra Singh is the most preferred choice for the chief minister's post while incumbent Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar are too far behind. While 41 per cent of the voters prefer Virbhadra Singh as the next chief minister, Dhumal has the support of 35 per cent while Shanta Kumar gets the backing of just five per cent.

While the satisfaction with the BJP government is high yet it offers no guarantee for re-election because in 2007 too satisfaction with the Congress government performance was also high and yet it was voted out. The main election issues were price rise, condition of roads, corruption, employment, cap on subsidised LPG cylinders, water problem followed by wages, salaries and pension.

HIMACHAL PRADESH POST POLL SURVEY 2012

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; figures for Urban are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for share of SC, ST, and Hindu in total population of Himachal Pradesh are from Census 2001.

CONGRESS HAS AN EDGE IN A BATTLE THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; others include other parties and independents.

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 14 Oct and 21 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 7 Nov and 14 Nov 2012. Pre Poll survey was conducted in 30 Assembly seats; Post Poll survey was conducted in the same 30 Assembly seats (out of which in 27 seats the same respondents were interviewed) and 2 additional seats.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others; these are vote share figures for all Assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh since 1982; Himachal has had a history of changing governments at every election after 1985.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; East Himachal consists of districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur. West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur.

Note: Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion.

Note: All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2003 based on a Pre Poll Survey and figures for 2007 and 2012 are based on Post Poll surveys.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures for 2007 are based on a Post Poll survey conducted then.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or could not say. Among the 18-25 years age group category, 40% respondents said Cong is best for Himachal’s youth and 33% said BJP. However among 26-35 years age group category 33% said Cong is best for youth and 35% said BJP.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest mentioned other issues or had no opinion; Price rise and cap on subsidies LPG cylinders can be merged into one category.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had not heard and voted for others

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had heard and voted for others.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; for Column 2 Rest did not benefit; for Columns 3 and 4 Rest said both or don’t know. Among respondents aged 56 years and above, 41% said they had benefitted from the pension scheme.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion.

Note: Rest gave some other reasons or had no opinion.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since 2007; Rest includes STs, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists and Christians; Figures for Rest should be read with caution due to small sample, particularly in 2007. According to rough estimates Brahmins constitute 20 per cent of Himachal’s population, Rajputs 28 per cent, Other Upper castes 8 per cent and OBCs 11 per cent; Apart from this SCs are 25 per cent according to Census 2001.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election; Men constitute 52 per cent of Himachal’s total electorate, women constitute 48 per cent of Himachal’s total electorate; turnout of men in Assembly election 2012 was 71 per cent and turnout of women was 77 per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest voted for other parties and independents.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Big farmers are cultivators who own 20+ acres land, Medium farmers are cultivators who own 5-19 acres land, Small farmers are cultivators who own 1-4 acres land, and Marginal farmers are cultivators who own less than 1 acre land.