The southern states show Jayalalithaa sweep Tamil Nadu, the Congress gaining in Karnataka, and Kerala and Andhra Pradesh split wide open. Dr Sandeep Shastri, Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University, on CNN-IBN's election survey in the southern states.
Q. What is your prediction on AP, TN and Karnataka in terms of no of seats? Asked by: Raman
A. Raman, the tracker poll has made an estimation of votes share if elections were held today. In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK seems to be ahead followed by the DMK and Congress. In AP, given the Congress presence across the state it seems to be the leader, though way below the 2009 achievement. Jagan's YSR Congress seems to be doing well in Rayalaseema and in Telangana it is a close race between the Congress and TRS. Karnataka seems to be poised to provide significant seats to congress. This trend is about today and not when the elections will be held.
Q. If Yeddyurappa merge with BJP in coming election, don't you think BJP will get more than 10 seats in Karnataka LS? Asked by: Jitesh, Mumbai
A. As per current trends 10 would be a very optimistic number Jitesh. The BJP and KJP coming together will surely get the more seats than if they contest separately.
Q. How much Modi factor will work in Andhra Pradesh? Asked by: Ashish
A. Limited to a few urban pockets maybe, given the strengths of the BJP in AP.
Q. Can you predict LS voting in Kerala? Asked by: mohammd shakkir
A. As per current trends, Shakkir it looks to be that the UDF may lose a little ground and the two alliances may evenly share seats.
Q. Prof Shastri, how good is current voter satisfaction with state government an indicator of the mood for 2014? Can you please explain this as everything we are talking of is hinged on this. Asked by: Krishnan
A. We need to talk of voter satisfaction at two levels Krishnan, one satisfaction with central government and with the state. In all four states of South India, the satisfaction with the centre is far less than with the state. The government in TN, has a reasonably high rating as does the government in Karnataka, which explains the projection of a good performance by the AIADMK in TN and Congress in Karnataka. In AP, both governments are rated poorly and incidentally both are congress governments. Given the multi-cornered contetsts, the results could vary in different regions.
Q. In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa may sweep the poll with 28-32 seats .( corruption of UPA). Your take on this? Asked by: Ashish
A. As per current trends they are projected to do well, though the sweep you are talking of may be an overestimation.
Q. What can BJP do to increase its presence in AP and TN? Which of the regional parties from these states do you see aligning with the NDA in future? Asked by: Dharam
A. As things stand, precious little Dharam. The reason being the nature of contests in the two states and the minimalist presence of the BJP.
Q. It's not surprising that Congress is gaining in Karnataka as the history suggests that people have voted the same party back to power that won assembly elections. But given the fact that Congress is involved in unprecedented corruption with various scams, is it fair for the people of Karnataka who are highly educated to trust Congress again? Or do you think a vigorous campaign by Narendra Modi will change the prospects of BJP in its only southern bastion? Asked by: Raghavendra Vannekala, Hyderabad
A. Raghavendra the anticipation that the congress will do well needs to be understood in the backdrop of the people's voting out the BJP governemnt in the state and the fact that the state congress government has started off reasonably well.The Modi effect in Karnataka seems untested.
Q. This survey is totally wrong.I don't know how many people they asked for this result.I can bet that BJP will get more seats than congress in Karnataka and Jagan and TDP will get more seats than congress in Andhra. This is ground reality.You view on this. Asked by: sunil
A. Sunil that is you perspective. I must add that the Tracker Poll is based in a representative sample...the details of which are on the CNN-IBN website.
Q. Prof Shastri, can you please explain what is net satisfaction- is this the best way of making sense of satisfaction? Asked by: Krishnan
A. The question in the poll basically ask whether the response is satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the government. Based on the answer, a supplementary question is asked, fully or somewhat satisfied/dissatisfied and then the responses are analyzed.
Q. Dr Shastri is the South different from rest of India when one sees the political mood. Asked by: ananya
A. Ananya thats a great question. I would say Yes. The nature of politics and the structure of the competition is different. This is not just today but historically.in the famous 1977 elections, the Congress was routed in the North but did reasonably well in the South.
Q. If DMK rejoins UPA and Jaya gets left with her will the present indications have a major change? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Sundar, if both developments happen, it could make the competition between the DMK and AIADMK led alliances more direct. In the recent past, Congress has always gone to polls in TN with a regional ally.
Q. I disagree with the survey in Andhra Pradesh, because the vote percent of congress is 32 percent and YSRCP is 20 percent. Are they going to get the same MP seats? In Karnataka if Yeddy comes back to BJP the results might be different. What's your take on corruption? People of AP are going to vote for most corrupted person? Asked by: Lakshmikanth Gelli
A. Lakshmikanth, YSR congress has a presence in Rayalseema in the main and Coastal Andhra. The Congress has a presence across the state. YsR congress could do well as it has strong pockets of influence. Yeddyurappa's return to BJP may improve its prospects but not allow them to repeat 2009 performance in the state when they won 19 seats.
Q. Hi Sandeep sir, In Recent Assembly Karnataka Election we saw BJP won more than 10 seats in Urban, and some parts of Bangalore South is with BJP. Irrespective of NAMO coming and Campaigning, are urban voters will vote for BJP in Karnataka, and some part of AP where Telegana factor will help BJP? Asked by: Jagannath Pujar
A. Jagganath, yes the BJP won aalrge chunk of its seats in the assembly electio s in Karnataka from Bangalore. The BJP has a limited presence in Telangana where TRS and Congress are in the contest save in hyderabad /secundrabad city.
Q. The results indicate a huge no show for BJP in south. Is it because they are seen as a Hindu party or Hindi party? Is language a barrier in communication of their views? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Sundar, the tracker poll does NOT provide too much of hood news to the BJP. Its loosing jn Karnataka and may not be able to translate votes into seats in AP and TN.
Q. Jaya has indicated going alone for all 39 +1 seats in TN and Pondy. Will that make Congress and BJP with no seats if DMK also is not aligning to Congress? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. If there were no alliances in TN, the current trends seem to indicate a political/electoral advantage for the AIADMK.
Q. BSY back in BJP will improve the BJP's chances in KK? Was it wrong move on BJP to have let BSY go out? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. As I said his return will, prevent a vote split and help the BJPdo better . However reaching the 2009 tally in Karnataka seems tough.
Q. Is there a possibility of Deve Gowda joining BJP to oppose congress which is on cloud nine now? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Seems a difficult proposition.
Q. Telengana an emotive issue has 99 percent attention. Which way will the Congress swing to gain maximum out of the situation? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Respondents in the survey who hailed from the Telangana region clearly indicated that their electoral choice depends on whether statehood would be conceded. The Congress is in a dilemma as creating Telangana may cause a backlash against the party in rest of Andhra and not guarantee seats in Telangana.
Q. Since the LS elections are almost six months away,how drastically will the current indications change. Would such a survey after monsoon session of parliament be more indicative of the likely results ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Yiu are right that things could dramatically change between now and the time when elections are held.
Q. Dear Sir In AP the BJP will get 3-5 seats and in Karnataka without Yeddyurappa BJP will get 8 seats with Yeddyurappa 12 seats. In Tamil Nadu BJP may win Kanyakumari and Ramanathpura may give tough fight in Coimbatore and nagercoil please comment! Asked by: pavan
A. The figures in all the three states seem to be very optimistic. The ground reality as of today as revealed in the survey, would peg the performance of the BJP at a much lesser number.
Q. Is it a Modi-Rahul contest in south? Asked by: vaishali
A. Good one Vaishali and also a tough one. Indications in the south are that rather than a Namo Raga (Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi) the electoral issues will be linked to a very different tune.
Q. Usually political parties claim that surveys are biased, especially if they go against them. This survey has something for everybody.. everybody looks like will get something- though not full satisfaction. Are we heading for a hung parliament? Asked by: Krishnan
A. Krishnan, am not sure who will be hung after the next Lok Sabha is constituted but we are in for a very exciting and closely fought contest.
Q. Sir, AP badly needs Chandrababu in whatever form, governance has come to a halt, after the HITEC CITY and IT craze, there is nothing this city can showcase during the congress two successive governments. DMK VS AIADMK is now a forgone story. Asked by: S ESHWAR
A. Eashwar, the tracker polls shows tbe TDP on the bacfoot being squeezed out of the contest in in Rayalseema and Coastal Andhra by the SR vs Cong contest and given its stand on Telangana, has limited support in that region.
Q. The survey results for Tamilnadu indicate a slow dip in Jaya's popularity. Will there be sharp fall in case of an adverse result in the DA case,which is nearing final stages? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Compared to 2009, the AIADMK vote share sees an increase. What seems to ha e dipped is satisfaction levels with state government. However 65 percent satisfaction is still high.
Q. Telengana in Andhra, Sri Lankan Tamils in Tamil Nadu are regional issues. How far they will impact national parties in LS elections. If the regional parties are to be the gainers, is that help in the federal structure? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Telangana issue is critical in AP. Srilankan issue is not of that great a significance in TN.
Q. The survey shows DMK not in good position,whilst Congress has improved. Will the position mutually improve if the UPA 2 partners rejoin? This is a possibility looking into the arrangements they had in the RS election. Asked by: sundar1950in
A. An alliance will definitely help in consolidating votes.
Q. Jagan Reddy seen as corrupt and yet the most liked leader. Does this again reinforce, that Corruption is no issue at all in the general elections? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. It does indicate that it is not an issue. It implies that among the different issues that compete for citizen attention, something else, other than corruption seems to impact on voter choice. In AP it could be the sense of injustice that YSR family suffered.
Q. Shouldn't TDP align with NDA to improve their chances and give people of AP an option for vote for an alternative to UPA? Asked by: Dharam
A. TDP aligning with BJP before polls seems unlikely as there is limited mutual political/electoral advantage. A post poll tie up is in the range of the possible.
Q. The food security ordinance/bill may not be of a great impact in TN and KK as the states already have schemes in operation ensuring a highly subsidised supply of rice. What else will be the UPA 2 venturing to woo the voters in these states? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. At this stage with polls less than a year away, the options are severely limited.
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