Another exit poll a day ahead of the counting of votes has predicted that the BJP will form the government in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, but is set for a tight race in Goa while the AAP is going to be the big winner in Punjab. The exit poll data, released by Lokniti-CSDS on Wednesday showed that the BJP will win majority in UP and Uttarakhand, but the AAP will pip the ruling Congress for the top job. The poll also predicted a victory for the BJP in Goa, but showed that it could be a closely fought contest.
Several exit polls have predicted a similar result with clear majority for the BJP in UP and Manipur, and the AAP in Punjab, while being mixed in their forecast for Uttarakhand as well as Goa. The Lokniti data shows the BJP will win Uttarakhand with a majority, but it may not be the case in Goa.
With a sample size of 7,000, the Lokniti poll has predicted that the BJP will get an estimated 43 per cent vote share with the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party having 35 per cent. It showed that the Congress will get only 3 per cent vote share, with Mayawati-led BSP getting 15 per cent. The rest of the votes will be divided between independents and other smaller parties.
The poll stated that this will be a “big win” for the BJP with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Axis-My India has projected the biggest margin with 288-326 seats for the ruling party in the state, which will be a repeat of 2017.
The BJP’s pitch of free ration, the “bulldozer” action to drive out mafia, women’s safety and security, the Narendra Modi face and Yogi Adityanath’s Hindutva pitch with the ‘80-20’ slogan at the onset of the election would have done the trick if these numbers hold true.
Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey UPAC 70 Locations 280 Sample size nearly 7000 (exact number awaited as some data yet to be added)Vote Share Estimate BJP+ 43%SP+ 35%BSP 15%Cong 3%Oth 4%Big win for BJPMargin of error 3%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022
In Punjab, the BJP’s claims of an “impressive gains” may just fall flat with the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP set for a major victory. Chief ministerial candidate Bhagwant Mann is said to have “worked his magic” with his popular outreach, as the Lokiniti-CSDS poll stated an estimated 40 per cent vote share in the state. This could be the AAP’s moment to shine as this win will catapult it to a national-level party.
This is likely to be a massive disappointment for the ruling Congress, which won with a massive majority in 2017 under Captain Amarinder Singh. The run-up to the polls witnessed an interesting staking of claim between CM incumbent Charanjit Singh Channi and Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu, after the Congress decided to remove Captain from the top job.
The poll has predicted 7 per cent vote share for the BJP alliance, which projected Amarinder as the CM face throughout. The Shiromani Akali Dal, meanwhile, may get 20 per cent vote share. The poll says it will be a “big victory” for the AAP with 4 per cent margin of error.
Most exit polls have been unanimous in predicting a big win for the AAP in Punjab, with India Today-Axis My India projecting up to 76-90 seats in the 117-member state assembly. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, however, predicted 56-61 seats for the AAP in Punjab, making it the frontrunner.
Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey findings PUNJABNo of AC 45 Locations 180 all sampled randomly, Sample size 4668, voters sampled randomly from voters list Vote share EstimateAAP 40%Cong 26%SAD+20%BJP+ 7%Oth 7% Big victory for AAPMargin of error 4%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022
Goa, meanwhile, is preparing itself for a tough fight. Despite the exit poll predicting a win for the BJP, data shows that it will be a closely fought contest between the saffron party and the Congress. Data shows that the BJP will get an estimated 32 per cent vote share, while the Congress will get 29 per cent. The margin of error is high at 6 per cent. Newcomer Trinamool Congress may get 14 per cent vote share with the AAP getting only 7 per cent.
But with rumours of poaching floating around, the Congress has taken safeguards by asking all its candidates to stay put in a resort till results are declared on Thursday.
Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey GOA AC 20 location 80 sample size 2066 sampled from voters listVote share estimate BJP 32%Cong 29%AITC+ 14%AAP 7%RG 8%Oth 10%Hung Assembly possibleMargin of error 6% due to smaller sample & multi corner contest@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022
But there is more good news in store for the BJP in Uttarakhand. Lokniti has predicted 43 per cent vote share as compared to 38 per cent for the Congress. The margin of error is only 3 per cent. This should be an easy win for the saffron camp.
Finding from Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey UTTARAKHANDNo of AC 26 Locations 104, Sample size 2738, All sampled randomlyEstimated Vote Share BJP 43%Cong 38%AAP 3%BSP 4%Oth 12%Should give a comfortable majority to BJPMargin of error 3%.@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022
The assembly elections in five states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur — ended on March 7 with voting in the seventh and final phase of Uttar Pradesh. The counting of votes will begin at 8 am on March 10.
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