Western Uttar Pradesh, comprising Meerut Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Shyamli and Saharanpur, kicked off the turnaround for the BJP in the state in 2014 and helped the Lotus bloom in 2017 and 2019.
These are the seats where Jat and Muslim voters hold the key. In the 2017 Assembly elections, of the 66 constituencies where Jats dominate, the BJP had bagged 50.
In the bastion of Chaudhary Charan Singh and Ajit Singh, only one RLD MLA managed to win in 2017 and he too crossed over to the BJP later. As per a CSDS-Lokniti survey, 77% Jat voters voted for the BJP in 2014 General Elections, which went up to 90% in 2019.
As the BJP banks on this support again in Uttar Pradesh elections 2022, the farmers’ agitation against the now-repealed farm laws is a heavy factor.
Speaking to News18, Bharatiya Kisan Union president Naresh Tikait says the year-long agitation has upset the Jats despite PM Narendra Modi announcing the withdrawal of the reforms. “Pradhan Mantri ne kaha ki kisano ki saari baatein maan li jayengi, par sarkar khari nahi utar rahi us baat par. Kisano ke mudde jyo ke tyo hai (The PM had promised that all concerns of farmers will be addressed, but the issues are still pending),” said Tikait.
He added that the losses suffered during the 13 months of agitation, including the deaths of farmers, is playing heavily on the minds of Jat voters. “Achha lagta agar PM unke baare mein bhi kuch bolte… (It would have been nice if the PM had said a word about them).”
Huddled around a bonfire in Peenna village of Purkazi constituency in Muzaffarnagar, a group of Jat men agree with Tikait but express support for Yogi Adityanath government’s clean-up of law and order. “Yogi Adityanath ki sarkar mein crime khatam ho gaya. Achhe kaam bhi kiye hain government ne, lekin narazgi ye hai ki kisan ko pareshan kiya (The Yogi Adityanath government has eliminated crime in UP but we are upset that farmers were put through problems),” said Sumit Malik, a farmer.
Some farmers are also not happy with the cow protection laws, calling them counter-productive. Octogenarian Randhir Malik said unwanted and abandoned cattle are destroying crops on daily basis.
Arvind Panwar, a resident of the village who is associated with BKU-Bhanu faction, downplayed the impact of the farmers’ agitation but added that Jats, specially the youth, identify with RLD leader Jayant Chowdhary. “I don’t see any impact from the farmers’ protest but there is an emotional connect with Jayant Chaudhary,” he says, adding that employment is also a major concern.
Similar sentiments are heard in Meerut and Baghpat as well, while the issue of sugarcane remuneration echoes throughout this belt. But some argue that sugarcane price issue has been there during previous governments too.
“Compared to previous governments, the BJP has ensured a better remuneration. There is no payment pending for this village. Some payments are pending in Shyamli, but Raja ji (sugarcane minister) has ensured that it will be released soon,” said Pramod Tomar in Charthwal’s Bahadurpur village.
Another talking point in the region is a possible political understanding between Jats and Muslims. While a potent combination that could play kingmaker, the ghost of 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots hangs heavy.
In Kanwal village where the riots began, Mohammed Salim is a bitter man. His son Shahnawaz was the first casualty in August 2013. As the RLD-supported Bhaichara Committees moved from village to village to bring the Muslims and Jats close again, Salim said it is difficult to forgive and forget.
A kilometre away, the family of Sachin and Gaurav, with whom Shahnawaz had allegedly got into an altercation, also rejected the bhaichara (brotherhood) argument.
“Two of our boys dies, how can we forget that? Chowdhary Charan Singh is our relative. But after the riots, no one from there came to us. We also have issues with the BJP. Roads that were promised were not laid, but we will still vote for the BJP,” Sachin’s uncle said, wishing that the RLD had instead joined hands with the saffron party.
Tapping into this sentiment, Union Home Minister Amit Shah met Jat leaders in Delhi and said Jayant Chowdhary “has chosen the wrong house” and that Jats must urge him to reconsider.
While Jayant rejected the offer, all is not rosy in the RLD-SP paradise. In Meerut’ s Sivalkhas, Jats protested when Haji Ghulam Mohammed was given the RLD symbol to contest. “There was some initial doubt about the choice of the candidate. Jats were not happy with Ghulam Mohammed,” said Meghraj Rathi of Jangeethi village, but quickly added that the objection was to Mohammad and not a Muslim candidate.
Naushad from the Sivalkhas Panchayat said Jats were unhappy because Mohammed had defeated Ajit Singh in past elections.
While SP and BSP are banking on the Jat-Muslim combination, the BJP is also wooing non-Jat Hindus in the region, hoping that this group’s combined support is enough to challenge the sheer numbers of Jats and Muslims that may get fragmented among Opposition parties.
“We will vote for the BJP as it ended goonda raj,” said Swayam Kumar, a Kashyap Rajput from Charthawal in Muzaffarnagar.
In Tatteri village of Baraut, too, non-Jat Hindus express support for the BJP, though some residents say the government should give more focus to issues of farmers, particularly sugarcane growers, and must tackle prise rise.
In Muzaffarnagar, the SP-RLD alliance finds support from Muslims, with some even dismissing the SP government’s failure to prevent the 2013 riots.
At the Baraut Bazar, locals argue that the riots were “just an anomaly” in the history of Jat-Muslim brotherhood. “Jat-Muslim brotherhood has existed for ages. In 1937, when Liyakhat Khan stood against Chowdhary Charan Singh, Muslims chose the latter. That is why we consider Jayant Choudhary to be our leader,” said Osman, a local.
The Samajwadi Party had suffered major losses in 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections despite support from the Muslim community. Will the alliance with RLD marks a turnaround for it this time? We’ll know on March 10.
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