Russian Elections: How Long Can Vladimir Putin Rule & Who are His Challengers | Explained

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last Friday he would run for president again in the 2024 presidential election, a move that is expected to keep him in power until 2030.

Putin would be running for a fifth presidential term. Following a constitutional reform in 2020, he could stay in power as president until 2036. Since launching the campaign in Ukraine, Putin has become a pariah among Western leaders and his country has been hit by unprecedented sanctions.

When Will the Elections Take Place?

The polls in Russia will be held over three days from March 15-17 and the winner will be inaugurated in May. Kremlin critics argue that the three-day period makes guaranteeing transparency more difficult.

The upper house of the Russian parliament voted for the date on Thursday (December 14) essentially the start of the election campaign.

Voting will also take place in what Russia calls its new territories – parts of Ukraine now controlled by Russian forces. Ukraine says it will not rest until it has ejected every last soldier from the annexed territories. However, Russia says the regions are now part of Russia.

Total Voters?

Around 110 million people have the right to vote in Russia, though around 70-80 million people usually cast ballots. The turnout in 2018 was 67.5 per cent.

Opinion polls show Putin’s approval ratings around 80%, reflecting the lack of competition in the tightly controlled political system and rallying around the flag amid the war.

How Long Can a President Rule?

Putin, who was handed the presidency by Boris Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, has already served as president for longer than any other ruler of Russia since Josef Stalin, beating even Leonid Brezhnev’s 1964-82 tenure.

The 1993 Russian constitution, which is loosely based on France’s 1958 constitution, was seen in the West as a development that would lead to democracy in post-Soviet Russia. The constitution originally specified that a president could serve for two successive terms of four years.

However, it was amended in 2008 and the presidential term was extended to six years. Following a controversial constitutional reform in 2020, he could stay in power until at least 2036.

Putin’s record

After Putin was appointed as acting president by Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, he won the 2000 presidential election with 53.0% of the vote and the 2004 election with 71.3% of the vote.

In 2008, his protege Dmitry Medvedev ran for president and Putin served as prime minister before garnering 63.6% of the vote in the 2012 presidential election and 76.7% in 2018.

Reports further say Putin is further expected to win with the backing from the state and its media.

For Putin, winning reelection will probably be the easy part. His sweeping grip on Russia’s political scene has virtually assured him another six-year term that would extend his two dozen years in power.

Democrat or Dictator?

Though the West casts Putin as a war criminal and dictator, Russian opinion polls show he has approval ratings of 80% – higher than before the war in Ukraine.

According to the Kremlin, Putin enjoys overwhelming support from the Russian people, that Russia does not want to be lectured by the West about democracy.

In November, Putin tightened media rules on covering the 2024 election, banning some independent media outlets from accessing polling stations.

Russian Opposition Figures

In the 2018 election, Communist strawberry tycoon Pavel Grudinin, the man who came second and formerly supported Putin, won under 9 million votes or around 11.8 percent. Putin won over 56 million votes, according to official results.

Russia’s most famous opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, is in jail so cannot run for president. Navalny has castigated Russia as a state run by thieves and criminals. He has warned Russia’s leaders will ultimately be crushed by the forces of history and burn in hell for creating a bloodbath in Ukraine.

Pro-war Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who is in custody awaiting trial for inciting extremism, said in November that he wanted to run for president even though he understood the March election would be a “sham” with the winner already clear.

(With inputs from agencies)