As we get closer to Assembly polls for nine states in 2023 and the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for 2024, the budget session of the Parliament has given some clear indications in terms of the agenda for these polls. It has also given an indication that the Opposition parties are becoming more and more desperate. This was reflected in the frequent use of unparliamentary language, disrupting Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his speech by sloganeering and other unsavoury comments, and most importantly making unsubstantiated and wild allegations in the Adani row. The result was that certain comments made by the leaders of the Opposition were justifiably expunged.
BJP’s poll agenda
Through the budget, the President’s address to the joint session and the Prime Minister’s reply on Motion of thanks in the ongoing session, there were enough indications about the poll agenda set by the BJP for 2023-24.
The BJP’s focus on its core constituencies is very clear and these constituencies are: Youth, Women, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, other socially marginalised sections of the society, farmers and most importantly the ‘middle class’. The Prime Minister mentioned the work done for these sections in detail in his speeches in both Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha while speaking on the Motion of thanks for the President’s address. The latest and the most significant addition in this list is the ‘middle class.’
There had been often a debate in the past that the Modi government hasn’t met the expectations of the middle class. In run up to 2023-2024 polls, the Modi government decided to take this perception bull by horn.
The tax rebates in the personal income tax regime for the middle class were announced in the budget. At least 1 crore individuals in the Rs 5-7 lakh income bracket are expected to benefit from the government’s decision to increase the rebate level to Rs 7 lakh under the new tax regime. There has been a slew of other measures in the field of health, education, financial and MSME sectors that are going to bring huge benefits for the middle class. In fact, no budget in the last nine years has been so middle-class-friendly as the 2023-24 budget.
The Prime Minister, while replying to the debate on the Motion of Thanks talked about the contribution of India’s middle class in detail. Then on 10 February, while flagging off a new Vande Bharat train in Mumbai, he reiterated specifically that this year’s budget has strengthened the middle class.
The second key category that the BJP has been focusing on is Scheduled Tribes (STs). The Prime Minister began his reply to the debate on President’s address by specifically mentioning that it has been a historical event that the present President of India is a tribal and it is a moment of pride for tribals across the nation. He also mentioned during his speeches that it is the BJP government which declared the birth anniversary of tribal leader Birsa Munda as Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas. These actions and assertions of the Prime Minister are likely to benefit the BJP. Out of 542 Lok Sabha seats, 47 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. The BJP had won 27 of these seats in 2014 and improved its tally to 31 in 2019. It is looking at improving its tally further in 2024 polls. This outreach to STs would also have a significant impact in the state assembly polls of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even in north-eastern states going to state polls in 2023. The Congress had won 5 Lok Sabha seats reserved for STs in 2014 and it came down to 4 in 2019. It has done nothing significant to improve its tally on these seats and is waiting to get some benefit from anti-incumbency. The BJP is well aware of this scenario and hence it has made a massive outreach to the Scheduled Tribes.
Modi vs Rest
Another key takeaway from the ongoing parliament session is that the Opposition failed to identify itself with the issues which are connected to the common people. The way it went ballistic in Parliament over the Adani row was a political blunder. This resonates, however, with the radical leftist position taken by Congress on all economic issues. Its attempts to revive the ‘Old Pension Scheme’ is also a part of that 1970s Socialist welfare model which could be a big jolt for fiscal management. The ‘freebies’ model had blunted the growth of the Indian economy for long under the Congress’ socialist regimes and we witnessed it had catastrophic effects during 10 years of the UPA rule from 2004 to 2014. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a firm stand on this issue that populist measures which could hurt the fundamentals of the economy and hence India’s interests, in the long run, shouldn’t be pursued.
Throughout the proceedings of the Parliament, ever since the budget was presented on 1 February, it was clear that the Opposition doesn’t have a narrative of its own. It doesn’t have an alternative development model. Instead, the opposition leaders are busy building only a counter-narrative against the BJP and finding faults in the Modi government’s development model.
And in that sphere too, they are not able to leave an impact. The reason is that instead of targeting the government on policy issues, the Opposition leaders are only targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi with lines between the political and the personal attacks getting blurred. That is precisely what happened in 2014 and 2019. The credibility of Modi is far superior to that of any other Opposition leader. The results were evident in itself. The same script seems to be getting repeated for 2024 also.
By targeting Modi, the Opposition is walking into a battleground where the rules of the electoral war have been set by the BJP. It is BJP’s home ground. And Prime Minister Narendra Modi has indicated that when he said in Rajya Sabha on February 9 in his speech, “The entire nation has witnessed how one individual has prevailed over many. They have to take turns even when it comes to shouting slogans (against me). But my conviction is unshakeable. I have devoted my life for the nation and I am there to do something for my country.”
Modi called the Opposition the practitioners of politics who lack the courage and conviction to play fair and hence they have been plying new tactics against him. The Opposition, on the other hand, seems to have shot itself in the foot with multiple incidents of unparliamentary behaviour. As they were indulging in these tactics, the whole nation was watching the live broadcast of these incidents which were quite contrary to our long-cherished and well-nurtured parliamentary traditions. This would also further weaken their challenge to the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who have a clear ideological roadmap backed by a government delivering on its promises and a highly motivated and strong organisational cadre. Most importantly, the BJP led by Prime Minister Modi has a ‘narrative’ of its own. The Opposition only has a ‘counter narrative’.
The writer, an author and columnist, has written several books. He tweets @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed are personal.
Read all the Latest Opinions here
Comments
0 comment