Will Rahul Gandhi throw his hat in the ring?

I don't see RG (Rahul Gandhi) taking over a formal position in UP (Uttar Pradesh). The best case scenario that the Congress is hoping for to get a good mandate in UP, which will pave the way for RG's anointment in 2014.

But there is always a flip side — what if the Congress falls below the 100-seat mark in UP and is forced to give in to one of the rainbow alliances that may come up in the state? That would mean RG is just another politician, not really an agent of change.

So, there will be a qualitative difference. It would also mean that the Congress would have to rely on its partners like Mamata Banerjee and J. Jayalalithaa to bail them out in 2014. That is something that doesn't sit easily with RG. So far, he has said he is not cut out for such a role. He has maintained a dignified distance from coalition partners like NCP's Sharad Pawar.

I don't see him taking over in the 15th Lok Sabha (that is currently underway).

But nothing is set in stone. He appeared to have been testing the waters while addressing a large public rally in Phulpur (in UP) in November. He said, "When I see such injustices in UP, I wonder why I don't come and live in Lucknow and take up your battle."

Apart from gauging how the public responds to an indication of his entering local politics, such statements serve as a huge morale booster for state Congress workers.

There is a section of the party that thinks RG must take over, in the sense that he should take over as the party president.

But Rahul's whole way of functioning is such that he is not in a great hurry. He has no fixed plan. But one thing is clear now. His way to political power in Delhi has to come through UP. And UP poses a lot of challenges to him.

It is also clear that RG has to be the central figure if the Congress wants to take on the BSP and the SP in UP. But, then again, no member of the Nehru-Gandhi family has taken that route — taking over as chief minister on their way to entering central politics.

There are people who feel that if RG wants a real hands-on experience of governance, he should first solve the problems of UP.

Now, there are just five countries in the world that are bigger than UP in population. The logic is that if he can solve the problems of 200 million people, then perhaps he is equipped to solve the problems of the billion-plus too.

Fact of the matter is he doesn't have a magic wand. He is not what Mamata Banerjee is to West Bengal or what Narendra Modi is to Gujarat or what Jayalalithaa has shown herself to be in Tamil Nadu.

His problem is that he cannot restrict himself to a particular state or a region.

But everyone, be it his party men or the media or the political commentators, has a lot of expectations from him.

RG's own assessment is slightly different and that is where there is a degree of uncertainty. He is quite happy with what he has achieved and he wants to project himself in some kind of a puritan way — he wants the Congress' supremacy to be established.

He does not want to be seen dabbling in electoral coalitions, dealing with unreliable partners who just want to stay in power.

The country's political situation is such that it does not appear the Congress will return to power on its own strength in 2014. The battle for UP then becomes very important.

I feel that 2012 will be the most crucial year in his political life so far.

From the 2014 general election perspective, 2012 UP is near critical for the Congress.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will only give the Congress 10-15 leftover seats. Similarly, in Maharashtra, the Congress has a tie-up with the NCP. In Andhra Pradesh, the political situation is a big mess and the Congress looks set to suffer some losses there.

The additional seats, or rather the compensation, can only happen in UP. It holds the key to 80 Lok Sabha seats and the Congress could get almost 60-odd seats in the good old days.

The Congress needs a big chunk from UP to get close to the magic figure of 272 in the 2014 Lok Sabha. All roads to Delhi go through UP as far as RG is concerned.

Now, if he identifies himself with UP and if, for some reason, people reject him, then his Delhi dream also goes for a toss. It is a very difficult choice.

But if he is able to get the Number 1 or Number 2 slot in the UP state elections, then it would provide a lot of stability to the United Progressive Alliance and help it in the general elections.

It would bolster the Congress' case that as a single party government it could function better.

The author Rasheed Kidwai is associate editor with The Telegraph and author of two books — Sonia: A Biography and 24 Akbar Road: A Short History of the People Behind the Fall and Rise of Congress.

(As told to Udit Misra)