Monsoon Expected to Hit Kerala Coast in Early June, Says Weather Department

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Although the MeT department says that monsoon is expected to arrive Kerala by June 6, private weather forecaster Skymet says the sluggish pace of monsoon has further delayed its onset over Kerala to June 7

New Delhi: Monsoon is expected to arrive near Kerala nearing June 6 after covering some extreme southern part of the Arabian sea and parts of southwest-southeast-east central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Nicobar islands, the Indian MeT department said in a statement.

The MeT department also predicts that monsoon will cover more parts of the Arabian sea in the next few days.

The overall monsoon across the country is "most likely" to be normal this season but it will be below normal over north and south India, the MeT had earlier said in its forecast on Friday.

"Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal," the IMD said.

Monsoon is likely to be below normal in July and normal in August. It is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average, the IMD said.

However, private weather forecaster Skymet, revising its earlier forecast date, says the sluggish pace of monsoon has further delayed its onset over Kerala to June 7.

Skymet previously said the monsoon would reach Kerala, commencing the four-month rainfall season in the country, on June 4 with an error margin of plus or minus two days.

"(But) present weather conditions are indicating monsoon onset would be now around June 7, with an error margin of plus or minus 2 days," Skymet said.

The LPA over the country as a whole from 1951-2000 is 89 centimeters. Anything between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is normal.

Monsoon is categorised as below normal if the LPA is between 90-96 per cent and classified as deficient, if below that. Anything above 110 per cent of the LPA is classified as excess.

Region-wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 94 per cent of LPA over north-west India, 100 per cent of LPA over central India, 97 per cent of LPA over southern peninsula and 91 per cent of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent.

The El-Nino phenomenon, generally believed to have its impact on monsoon, will continue during the rainy season. However, there is a possibility of these conditions to turn neutral during the later part of the rainfall season, the IMD said.

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