Now, ordinarily, state elections need not have an impact on national elections. There have been instances when BJP lost all state elections but won the central polls and vice-versa with the Congress.
While there is no denying that the Karnataka elections are equally important and critical for the BJP, considering it’s the only southern state it is in power, for the Congress, it’s a do-or-die situation. There are many reasons why the Karnataka results are central to congress’s existence.
First, whether the Congress accepts it or not, and despite the denial, the Bharat Jodo Yatra did have political connotations. The most successful and longest leg of the yatra was Karnataka. And coming as it did so close to polls, the success of the yatra will also be put to test on counting day. It was during this yatra that Rahul Gandhi experimented with the idea of showing a united leadership — that of DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. This show of unity will also be tested should the Congress win the polls and have to decide on the chief minister.
The second Gandhi who will be under test is Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. She did more rallies than Rahul Gandhi and her road shows earned traction. In fact, it was Priyanka who was given the task to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi directly whenever he attacked the Congress aggressively. So, in case it works for the Congress here, Priyanka is likely to be used more aggressively in the run-up to the 2024 polls. It will also redeem the perception about Priyanka that she has a poor report card as a neta and campaigner.
VOCAL FOR LOCAL
This is an experiment which worked in Himachal Pradesh — keeping focus only on local issues and making promises or guarantees that matter to the local people. An instance of this is the promise made to the women of Himachal as well as the Old Pension Scheme which worked for the party in the hill state. The Congress has duplicated much of this in Karnataka as well. From free bus rides for women to money into the accounts of women and jobs, the Congress feels this will be the winning formula. In fact, it has already begun making similar guarantees in Madhya Pradesh as well. These guarantees are a replica of the successful food security scheme and Congress hopes it wields magic again.
DISQUALIFICATION REVENGE?
Sources say Rahul Gandhi was advised by party colleagues that he should stay away from raising the Adani issue and that’s why he kept the focus on corruption in the state or the ‘40% Commission Sarkara’ slogan. But in case Congress wins, the victory will be used to vindicate Rahul Gandhi and his supporters’ argument that he was targeted for showing the mirror to the BJP. While the legal battle may take a while, his political battle would be believed to have been half won.
It would also bring the mojo back in the party which has been battered by losses, exits, and infighting. A win is also important because the party president comes from the state — Mallikarjun Kharge at 82 years has done the maximum rallies.
A win would also set the wheels in motion for the upcoming state polls in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. A victory is no more a matter of choice for the Congress — It’s a do or die.
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