The timing of three southern chief ministers — K Chandrashekar Rao, YS Jaganmohan Reddy and MK Stalin — landing in Delhi around the same time this week has generated quite a bit of interest and curiosity in the national political circles.
Their visits are being perceived as a major push towards building their national image and relevance before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
With the Congress fighting for its survival, regional parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and YSR Congress Party are expected to play a major role in filling the void.
Where Stalin Stands
MK Stalin’s three-day visit to Delhi had several undertones. From the inauguration of ‘Anna-Kalaignar Arivaalayam’, the DMK’s first office outside Tamil Nadu, to the presence of anti-BJP allies during the release of his autobiography in the national capital, the south leader was sending out a clear message – “Dili Door Nahi”.
His statement that the DMK office in Delhi is “a compelling symbol of the indispensable role that the DMK and the Dravidian model plays in national politics” is another sign that the southern party is bracing itself for the 2024 General Elections.
The presence of Rahul Gandhi, Omar Abdullah, Pinarayi Vijayan and Tejashwi Yadav during the release of his autobiography was another open message of his party’s continued fight against the “big brother” at the Centre.
Finally, his visit to Delhi’s government schools and mohalla clinics along with Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal was seen as a step towards strengthening DMK’s relations with the Aam Aadmi Party and garnering support from anti-BJP allies.
Interestingly, the DMK is the third largest party in the Lok Sabha after the party sent 24 elected MPs to the lower house in the 2019 elections. Under the leadership of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, the two Dravidian parties, the AIADMK and the DMK, have played a crucial role in supporting the NDA and UPA, thus helping them come to power or even bringing their governments down.
“Stalin is perhaps attempting to stitch a coalition together ahead of 2024, just as his father Karunanidhi did in the late 1980s and 1990s,” said Sandhya Ravishankar, freelance journalist based in Chennai.
“Stalin may not be angling for the PM’s chair but he would definitely want to be king-maker. We will have to wait and see if this so-called third front actually takes shape,” she said.
Political analyst Sumanth C Raman believes that unlike his father M Karunanidhi, Stalin does have a better chance at central politics. While Karunanidhi had made it clear that he knew his “limits” in politics, Stalin feels he can use his proximity to the Gandhi family to his advantage.
Compared to other regional party leaders like K Chandrashekar Rao or Mamata Banerjee, Stalin is much more closer to the Gandhis, Raman said.
“However, the DMK chief faces several challenges being a leader from a state that has taken an anti-Hindi stand – one that is not appreciated in the Hindi belt of India. It will be difficult for him to vie for the top job. At the most, he can be the convenor of the rainbow alliance, the role which would include getting people together. Not more than that,” Raman told News18.
The Jagan Reddy Mystery
While Stalin’s IT wing released ads on social media stating “social justice comes to Delhi”, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy arrived in a more sombre fashion.
Jagan’s YSR Congress Party is not far behind the DMK. Out of 25 Lok Sabha seats from Andhra Pradesh, the YSRCP won 22 seats in the 2019 elections. Analysts say the party is likely to win a majority of the seats in the state in 2024 as well.
Jagan, like Stalin, is moving forward with the welfare mantra. Direct money transfers to the poor and middle class, in the name of various welfare schemes, have paid off politically.
But Jagan’s relationship with the Centre is still a mystery. While he desperately needs the Centre for funds and development projects, locally, his main rival is the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu.
Political analyst Gali Nagaraja told News18 that Jagan is seen cosying up to the BJP as he has no other option.
“There is no Congress in its original form and it is also the party that was responsible for incarcerating him in an ED case. Jagan has no other option but to stay close to the BJP. The BJP also needs Jagan more than Naidu in AP because in the 2019 elections Naidu funded elections in Karnataka, Gujarat and other states to defeat the Modi-Shah leadership. So the BJP thinks that Naidu is politically more dangerous politically than Jagan and they would not like to keep him as their enemy. By using Jagan, the BJP plan to decimate TDP and Naidu,” Nagaraja explained.
Yet, Jagan is not part of the NDA. Political analysts see this as a cautious move on his part – keeping his options open ahead of 2024 and also ensuring that his state gets the funds it simply does not have.
“Keep aside the development, the government does not even have money to pay the bills to the contractors. No one is coming forward to do the developmental works. Is it enough to pay money directly to the people in the name of schemes? What about industries, jobs? Youth and educated people are opposing Jagan’s rule,” Subrahmanyam, a senior journalist, told News18.
“Everyone appreciates us, including Noble Prize winners, for our welfare schemes except for opposition parties. We don’t care. We need our people to develop. Definitely, we will be stronger after 2024 elections,” Mohammed Iqbal, YSRCP MLC, told News18.
“Definitely, there is a vacuum in Andhra politics. No one is in a position to compete with Jagan, including the TDP. Meanwhile, Jagan has been standing by the BJP from the beginning even though it is not needed. This may include personal benefits such as CBI, ED cases. But it looks like YSRCP stands by the BJP when needed. If the BJP needs YSRCP in 2024, definitely they will cooperate. If the BJP does not have the strength, it will look for an alternative alliance,” journalist and political analyst Subrahmanyam said.
KCR’s Comeback
Taking a cue from his Tamil Nadu counterpart, Chandrashekar Rao also made a move to buttress his national aspirations. He has appointed Sanjay Kumar Jha, as his Press Relations Officer in Delhi, a first for this regional party.
Rao, who has been camping in Delhi since the auspicious festival of Ugadi, seems to be on a mission to take up the cudgels on behalf of Telangana farmers and expose the Centre on the paddy procurement issue. But there is more than what meets the eye.
There has been a sudden change in the way the Telangana CM has been positioning himself publically. Rao had been slammed for ruling the government from his lavish “Pragati Bhavan” or his farmhouse in Siddipet district, “missing in action” during the peak of the pandemic, but is now suddenly “active and accessible”. From hosting all party meetings (the first since he took over as CM in 2014), to launching social development schemes to planning a dharna against the BJP in Delhi, KCR is now in the heart of it all.
Political analysts read this as part of Rao’s bigger “national plan”. Even his move to launch a national-level agitation with farmers’ unions, including the dharna at Jantar Mantar to garner attention on the paddy procurement row, is being perceived as his strategy towards building his “national image”.
While his sudden visibility may be a preparation for the 2023 Assembly elections, sources close to the CM say that the TRS chief has been quite shaken up by the electoral setbacks his party has faced since 2020.
Disappointed by the TRS performance in the Dubakka and Huzurabad bypolls last year, Rao is also unsettled with the way the BJP won in the high-voltage Hyderabad municipal body elections in 2020. While the TRS missed reaching the halfway mark, its arch-rival BJP bagged 48 seats compared to the four seats it won in the 2018 polls.
A recent announcement by Rao that he was going to play an active and key role in central politics in order to bring the non-BJP and non-Congress government to power in the Centre, is indicative of his “desperation”, say analysts.
“KCR moves are always multi-pronged. If he is cobbling up support of non-BJP allies and setting up an alternative front, he would be hailed as its initiator. He can also show that he tried to bring the third front together, even if the NDA emerges as the largest alliance,” Venu Gopal Reddy, a Telangana-based political analyst, told News18.
Rocky Road
But being in the opposition to the BJP is always fraught with risk. One DMK minister has been charge-sheeted this week, and at least two more are rumoured to face the music soon. The ghost of 2G remains hanging in appeal before the Delhi High Court.
Jagan faces his CBI and ED cases. While the road ahead will have to traversed on thin ice, the dream of these southern leaders to bloom in Delhi may either be delayed due the juggernaut of the BJP or just legal hurdles.
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