Assassination of Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov on Monday in Ankara by a diabolically committed lone Turkish police man reminded me of the brutal killing of Chris Stevens, US Ambassador to Libya in September 2012 by fanatic militants in Benghazi. Reasons for such acts of barbaric violence as pay back are somehow being attributed to the military interventions by the respective countries in the current theatres of civil war and insurgency in the middle east.
Terror groups and terrorists acting as powerful non-state actors have used the excuses to justify violence . The words of the killer of Andrei Karlov will ring in with “we will not let you forget Aleppo- We die there you die here” for some time to come. The fact that it happened on the Turkish soil, which has the dubious distinction of going soft on the ISIS or Daesh for their own Geo-political compulsions and being part of the larger design by western and other countries in the region, will have some tenuous impact on the pace of normalisation of Russia-Turkey relations.
The Regime Change agenda under the western lead in Syria as well as the unwise handling and static approaches by President Assad supported by Russia and Iran, who refused to read the writing on the wall, have inflicted unimaginable and untold miseries on the innocent Syrian people millions of whom have become either refugees or internally displaced .
Overtly, all sides seem to be fighting the demon of ISIS or Daesh or Jabahat Al Nusra & Shams and several other notorious militant groups that many of them have been involved in creating or sustaining in the first place. Now the bickering between the two sides is as to who will be allowed to exit from the besieged Aleppo and to where. In the name of human rights even avowed extremists will be provided safe passage.
US and Russia as well as regional actors like Turkey are physically there on the ground bombing the hapless Syrian landscape out of shape to carve out their strategic space rather than only for the democratic project, or fight against terror outfits like Daesh or to strengthen their bases and areas of influence. However, with some sincere and honest efforts and rapprochement between President Putin and US President elect Donald Trump, some kind of resolution of the Syrian situation could be expected without dividing the country along sectarian lines which is unfortunately quite a stark possibility.
Meanwhile, Russia,Turkey and Iran Foreign Minister’s meeting in Moscow on Tuesday is hoping to find a way out for the proposed Inter-Syrian dialogue in Kazakhstan to arrive at a political solution now that the Syrian opposition is in a complete disarray as their supporters including the US whether under Obama or Trump are turning nonchalant. The situation in the Middle East especially in Libya , Yemen , Syria and Iraq remains worrisome and despondent, which has a direct bearing on ensuing political and economic restructuring of the region with attendant threats of ultra-terrorists footprints expanding beyond the immediate horizon.
As for India the Middle East is our extended neighbourhood and strategically important given the over 8 million diaspora , 70% dependence on hydrocarbons, almost $40bn in repatriation by Indian workforce as well as the collaboration in countering of terrorism emanating from the region and conversely from across our borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Pakistan has had good relations due to several reasons with many of the countries in the region who overlooked its surrogacy of terrorists .
Fortunately, with important visits and intensive interactions that the current Government of PM Modi has undertaken especially with the GCC leadership -the blind support to Pakistan has been decimated to an extent . This has to be reinforced. Hitherto, in Syria and elsewhere we have decried military interventions, supporting dialogue and process led by the locals as a continuation of our foreign policy and abstained on the relevant UN resolutions, that led to the bombing of innocent people even though succeeded in removing the autocratic rulers but eventually led to the mess that the middle east is currently in.
However, as India wishes to play a greater regional as well as global role given her economic clout, political uprightness and non-neo colonialist approaches and resolute fight against terrorism in the conduct of foreign relations sitting on the fence may not be the viable option any longer. There are high stakes and since India by many is seen as a “ Swing state” it would be imperative to refrain from “ strategic restraint” that has been the hallmark of the policy choices especially since India also hopes to sit on the “High Table”.
Anil Trigunayat , former Ambassador to Libya, Jordan and Malta
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