The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may not ally with the Congress in Punjab, as part of the opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) front against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to top sources in the party.
Sources said the alliance between the two will be for states such as Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Goa.
The AAP, led by CM Bhagwant Mann in Punjab is the ruling party with 92 seats, while the Congress is the main opposition in the state. According to AAP strategists, an alliance between the two would lead to the “opposition space” being vacated, which in turn, could lay the ground for revival of the Akalis in the state.
THE NUMBER GAME
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP won four seats — Faridkot, Patiala, Sangrur and Fatehgarh Sahib and in 2019, the party could retain only Sangrur, with Mann winning for the second consecutive time. However, the party lost Sangrur in the bye-elections, but scored a surprise win in the Gurdaspur by-elections. Punjab is the only state where the AAP has managed to win a Lok Sabha constituency.
As far as the Congress is concerned, the party won three parliamentary constituencies in 2014, and a robust eight in 2019. The Punjab Congress leadership is not willing to sacrifice any of these for the INDIA alliance.
The factor at play is that the BJP is a marginal player in Punjab — in 2014 and as well as in the 2019 general elections, the BJP won just two parliamentary constituencies.
WAR OF WORDS
In the same context came Mann’s recent remark in Punjab and Delhi that “mothers can tell their children the world’s shortest story ‘Ek Thi Congress’”. Congress’s Pawan Khera was quick to retort: “How similar are AAP’s and Modi ji’s ideologies. Both are dreaming of a ‘Congress -mukt’ Bharat. Both will be delivered a big jolt. By the way, you must have seen a Bhojpuri film, ‘Ek Tha Joker.”
Congress leader Navjot Sidhu added fuel to the fire, demanding that AAP Convener and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal resign. He tweeted: “Practice what you preach…face the ED music even if you don’t like the tune…resign from your post till you come clean like I did in Dec 2006.”
However, the final decisions would be taken by the top leadership after a seat-sharing formula is worked out.
Responding to the new low between the two stakeholders within the alliance in Punjab, AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar said, “The INDIA alliance is getting stronger with each passing day. The top leadership will have discussions and take a decision on seat-sharing which will clarify many things.”
Specifically responding to the taunts by Congress leaders, the AAP spokesperson said, “In politics, one should mind one’s language. You are taken as role models and therefore must choose your words with care.”
DELHI, HARYANA, GUJ & GOA
In Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat and Goa, the political situation is very different. While the AAP rules with a staggering 62 out of 70 seats, the Congress has zero seats in the Delhi Assembly, with the BJP occupying the opposition space with eight seats. Neither the Congress nor the AAP have won a single Lok Sabha seat from Delhi in 2015 or 2019, with the BJP winning all seven. Without an alliance, the AAP and Congress would be giving the BJP a walkover in Delhi and therefore, the party’s strategists believe that seat-sharing coupled with good candidates and determined effort for a higher turnout of voters compared to last time would give the alliance a chance at winning a few seats here.
As far as Gujarat, Goa and Haryana are concerned, the BJP is the ruling party. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP won 15 seats, while the Congress won 11. In 2019, the BJP swept all 26 parliamentary constituencies, reducing the Congress to zero. The AAP, a new entrant in Gujarat, won five assembly constituencies and 13% of the vote share. The party’s strategists believe that seat-sharing with the Congress and consolidation of the “opposition vote” may give both a chance at wresting a few seats from the BJP.
After Delhi and Punjab, the AAP is looking at neighbouring Haryana very closely. In the recently concluded National Council meet of the AAP, party chief said the AAP will contest the next assembly elections in Haryana with the intent of forming the government. Over the past few weeks, AAP leaders, including party MP Sushil Gupta, have been making a focused push in the state. However, the party’s expansion plans suffered a blow with former Congress leaders Nirmal Singh and his daughter Chitra Swara leaving the party.
In the last assembly elections in Haryana, the AAP fielded candidates in 46 of the 90 seats. The party failed to open its account and its candidates polled lower votes than NOTA. Haryana sends 10 elected members to the Lok Sabha. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and Congress won seven seats and one each with INLD winning two. However, in 2019, the BJP swept all 10 Lok Sabha constituencies with a combined vote share of 36.45%. The Congress failed to open its account, but managed around 28% of the vote share. While Gupta demanded five of the 10 seats, former Haryana CM and Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda has ruled out any seats for the AAP.
Take a look at Goa. In 2014 as well as 2019 general elections, the BJP and Congress won one seat each of a total two in Goa. In the 2022 assembly elections, the BJP had won 20 seats with 33.3% vote share, Congress 11 with 23.46% of vote share and AAP two with 6.8% of vote share, which gives a rough idea of the position of the different parties.
At the AAP’s National Council meeting, Kejriwal had said that the AAP would contest and win as many seats it gets within the alliance and that the party is a strong part of the INDIA alliance. Political observers say that both the Congress and AAP have to climb down from their public postures if seat sharing between the two INDIA front parties has to work.
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