Cyclone Mocha May Intensify Into Very Severe Storm, Recurve Towards Bangladesh-Myanmar Coast: IMD DG

The storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a very severe cyclone with winds gusting up to 120 km/hour over the sea, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Dr M Mohapatra.

Signalling the start of the cyclone season, the weather department confirmed the formation of a low-pressure system in the southeast Bay of Bengal on Monday. The system is expected to turn into a ‘depression’ on May 9 and gradually intensify into a cyclonic storm during the night of May 10.

In an exclusive interview to News18, the IMD chief said the system is likely to move north-north westwards towards the central Bay of Bengal till May 11. “It may intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm so the wind speed can be more than 120 km/hr over central Bay of Bengal on May 11. Thereafter, its direction will change and start moving towards north-northeast, reaching near the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.”

However, it will continue to gain strength while moving towards the Bangladesh coast, and its maximum intensity will be known only after it fully develops into a cyclone.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have already been put on alert as the current track of the cyclone is forecasted to be very close to the islands. The weather department has warned about heavy rainfall which may become ‘extremely heavy’ exceeding 20cm in some areas during the next three days.

As the system gains strength, the sea condition over the east-central Bay of Bengal, southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea is also likely to worsen. IMD has sounded a warning for very rough seas, with wave height exceeding significantly — posing a risk for any kind of marine activities in the coming days.

Fishermen have been asked not to venture into the seas. Winds at 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph may impact Andaman Sea and Andaman Islands on May 12, while they may reach 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph over east-central Bay of Bengal as the cyclone moves. Some models suggest it may intensify rapidly but this is likely to happen away from the mainland.

NORTH INDIA’S “UNUSUAL” SUMMER

Far up north, the weather continues to surprise. Almost a week into May, temperatures still remain below 40℃ over major parts of the country known for its scorching summer, with rains continuing over the hilly states. Delhi recorded its coolest night in four decades with the minimum temperature plummeting to 15.8℃ on May 3.

“Certainly, it is unusual,” said the head of India’s weather department. “The temperatures have been below-normal for the entire week. Such type of weather is certainly not expected in May.”

However, the sudden change was brought upon by active western disturbances which passed more frequently over Northwest India. They were further supported by moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, said the senior scientist.

“This year, we saw a lot of thunderstorm activity, except for north-eastern states which mostly witness it otherwise. So, the country as a whole saw above-normal pre-monsoon rains. But now the temperatures are rising again. There could be some heatwave conditions in some parts of the country – starting with Gangetic West Bengal, then going to Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand,” said Dr Mohapatra.

The IMD has already issued a heatwave warning for Gangetic West Bengal for the next five days. “As the situation evolves, it is now expected that temperature will rise everywhere, but it will be significant over the eastern part of the country leading to heatwaves,” said the senior scientist.

As impacts of climate change intensify, the weather has also begun to show an increase in variability, highlighted the IMD chief. “Apart from rising temperatures, there has been an increase in variability in weather, so we can expect below-normal temperatures sometimes, along with more frequent thunderstorms. But overall, the basic trend is that temperatures are rising and the duration, frequency and intensity of thunderstorms is increasing too.”​

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