Srinagar: Come General Elections, Jammu and Kashmir falls literally off the radar. With only six seats up for grabs, it struggles to get a tick from the big political parties although small tidings in the state often resonate and shape their poll polity and manifestos.
The insignificant number of Lok Sabha seats may not excite the big parties headquartered in Delhi but regional mainstream parties like the National Conference and People's Democratic Party - which depend heavily on Centre for doles and security in government - are searching for partners.
Regional satraps, the Muftis and Abdullahs, are closely watching as to which alliance - NDA or UPA - has a better chance to walk into 7 Race Course Road in New Delhi. For the rival families, this is the time to choose and invest their loyalties. Not for immediate gains but to fight a battle on another day. Possibly in October or November when J&K casts ballot.
While Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has committed to continue with Congress - the two have a pre-poll arrangement for LS elections and if successful may carry this forward for assembly too - the PDP apparently left with no choice has started to cozy up to Narendra Modi and hint at a futuristic alliance (could be post-J&K assembly polls).
At a press conference, PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed had all the good things about Vajpayee-led NDA but stopped short of announcing a truck with NDA. His fears: apparently it would miff the domestic constituency which still sees the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate as "villain of Muslims".
Senior Mufti warming up to Modi is not without reasons though. He wants to offset the efforts of NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah who in no uncertain terms too had made right noises about Modi. Weeks back, he praised Modi and said, "It is for the people of the country whether they want to choose Modi or not'' when asked whether there was a Modi wave."
Apparently Mufti too made a "conscious" statement to elbow out senior Abdullah who is known to have friends across the political spectrum of the country and capable of stitching new alliances to remain relevant in new order. The Muftis' are aware of this.
They were eased out of PDP-Congress alliance post-Amarnath land row, and in walked NC. The PDP hasn't got a sniff to get back, mainly because of Omar's friendship with Rahul Gandhi and also because of senior Abdullah's rapport with Congress high command. The fact that Mufti had been a Congressman - he still has friends in the old guard - hasn't helped him to win back Congress trust. That in essence explains his leaning towards Modi.
And while Omar Abdullah has firmed up his party's alliance with the Congress, his worries are far from over. A resurgent BJP is riding high on the Modi wave in Jammu heartland and PDP is breathing down his neck, hoping to cash in on the anti- incumbency wave.
Charges of corruption, government inaction to nail guilty that includes ministers and worsening law and order situation over Shopian women deaths, killing of 120 youth in 2010 agitation, inability to secure AFSPA rollback, have further angered people in the restive state.
In the last Lok Sabha polls, the NC-Congress combine had won all the six seats leaving opposition PDP and BJP bitter and crippled. Then government under young chief minister Omar Abdullah was expected to turn a page on development, youth employment and educational programmes, human rights and easing security situation. People especially the youth believe the government has not fully met those expectations.
Five years on, the coalition does not seem to be that confident. Call it under-confidence or strategy, it has decided to split the seats between the partners. While the Congress will contest on two seats from Jammu and one in Ladakh, the NC will fight solely from all three seats in Kashmir. Two Union ministers, Ghulam Nabi Azad from Doda-Udhampur seat and Dr Abdullah from Srinagar, will contest to stem the tide of opposition.
Even in the backdrop of the separatist call to boycott polls, the contests - if last assembly elections are any indications - are expected to draw good percentage of voters out. Apart from the two heavyweights, Mehbooba Mufti of PDP is taking on Mehboob Beig of NC from Anantnag constituency.
From Baramulla, Muzaffar Hussain Beigh (PDP) will fight against NC's sitting MP Sharief-ud-din Shariq. Maverick Independent state legislator Engineer Rashid will make the contest interesting.
In Srinagar, Dr Abdullah will face PDP's Tariq Hamid Karra and Aam Aadmi Party debutant and RTI activist Raja Muzaffar Bhat while Azad is pitted against Dr Jitender Singh of BJP. Jugal Kishore (BJP) will fight sitting MP Madan Lal Sharma from Jammu-Poonch seat.
The Congress has fieled Rigzin Spallbar from Ladakh. BJP and PDP will name their candidates in few days. If it is NC verses PDP in Kashmir, it is going to be Congress against BJP in Jammu. The BJP is set to get another shot in its arm as Modi is holding a rally in Jammu on March 26. Jammu will cast ballot on April 10 followed by Udhampur on April 17. Anantnag and Srinagar constituencies go next, on April 24 and 30 respectively. Baramulla and Leh constituencies on May 7.
Around 70 lakh voters including 3275241 female voters and 58279 service voters will be exercising their franchise in the polls. "9633 polling booths would be set up in the state which is 500 booths more than that of 2009 elections .These booths would be set up at 7346 locations. Of these 4059 have been declared as critical," said Umang Narula, chief electoral officer of J&K.
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