Covid-19 in India may be entering some kind of stage of ‘endemicity’ where there is low or moderate level of transmission going on, Chief Scientist of the World Health Organisation Dr Soumya Swaminathan said. “We may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity where there is low level transmission or moderate level transmission going on but we are not seeing the kinds of exponential growth and peaks that we saw a few months ago,” Swaminathan said. “As far as India is concerned that seems to be what is happening and because of size of India and heterogeneity of population and immunity status in different parts of country in different pockets, it is very very feasible that the situation may continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, particularly where there are more susceptible population, so those groups who were perhaps less affected by first and second waves or those areas with low levels of vaccine coverage we could see peaks and troughs for the next several months,” she said.
Here is what endemicity means & how it affects you:
What is endemicity?
An endemic is a disease that is consistently present but limited to a particular area. This means that the disease spread and rate of illness is predictable, according to Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. An example of an endemic virus in the US that remains in the population at a low frequency is the seasonal flu. According to WHO’s Chief Scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the endemic stage is when a population learns to live with a virus. It’s very different from the epidemic stage when the virus overwhelms a population.
Endemic vs Pandemic
In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19 to be a global pandemic. Although there is no universally agreed-upon definition of what constitutes a pandemic, the WHO had previously called a pandemic the “worldwide spread of a new disease.” The International Epidemiology Association’s Dictionary of Epidemiology says that a pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people.”
Endemic diseases, like chicken pox or malaria, are not novel, and the rates of infection within a given population are fairly predictable. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that endemic “refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.”
Speaking with the New York Times, professor of infectious disease epidemiology David Heymann said that becoming endemic was “the natural progression of many infections we have in humans, whether it is tuberculosis or HIV.”
Is Covid-19 an endemic?
Medical experts now are saying that the Covid-19 pandemic could become the next “endemic”. Experts have previously said it would be impossible for the U.S. to reach “true herd immunity” with Covid-19 as new strains of the virus will continue to develop in the years ahead.
On CNBC’s Squawk Box last week, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner and current Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb said we’re “transitioning from this being a pandemic to being more of an endemic virus, at least here in the United States and other Western markets.”
The hope was that vaccines might allow populations to reach a level of herd immunity that would stomp out the virus almost entirely. But, because the delta variant spreads so quickly, most experts think herd immunity is no longer realistic—even if vaccination rates rose to the levels previously thought necessary, the Quartz said.
So, will Covid last forever?
Not all countries have given up on the hope of “Covid zero.” China, for example, is pursuing a “zero tolerance” approach to the virus, with strict lockdowns, contact tracing, testings, and quarantines. Australia, too, has sought to shut out the virus with closed borders, lockdowns, and widespread testing. The highly contagious delta variant, however, is still managing to penetrate both countries, calling the long-term viability of a zero-Covid strategy into question.
While it won’t be the ending to the pandemic we may have hoped for, it will be better than where we’re at now.
What about the vaccine then?
While vaccines will still be effective, there is no clarity on the need for booster shots. Higher vaccination rates may in some areas eventually stop COVID, but that depends on how many people get vaccines, how long they last, and how effective they are at reducing transmission over time.
Data from Israel shows a booster shot of Pfizer Inc’s Covid-19 vaccine has significantly improved immunity and offered protection from serious illness among people aged 60 and above, as the US and other countries have announced plans to give additional doses amid the spread of highly infectious Delta variant. The United States has announced plans to offer booster shots to all Americans, citing data showing diminishing protection and Canada, France and Germany have also announced booster campaigns.
Getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and social distancing in public spaces can help control overcrowding in hospitals and keep schools, restaurants, and other businesses open, according to The Atlantic.
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