AI Impact On Jobs: Nearly 40% Of Global Employment Could Be Disrupted By AI, Says IMF

The International Monetary Fund warned that the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) could impact nearly 40% of jobs worldwide, potentially exacerbating global inequality.

In a Sunday blog post, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called for governments to establish social safety nets and offer retraining programs to counter the impact of AI, a report by CNN said.

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“In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions,” she wrote ahead of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, where the topic is set to be high on the agenda.

As the summit kicked off on Monday, Davos, the ski resort town, was adorned with AI advertisements and branding.

Georgieva highlighted in her blog that as AI becomes more widely embraced by both workers and businesses, it is anticipated to have both positive and negative impacts on the human workforce.

Reiterating concerns expressed by other experts, Georgieva stated that the anticipated effects are likely to have a more profound impact on advanced economies compared to emerging markets. This is partly attributed to the perception that white-collar workers are more vulnerable than manual labourers.

In advanced economies, up to 60% of jobs could potentially be influenced by AI. About half of these jobs might experience positive effects through the increased productivity facilitated by AI, according to her statements.

“For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks currently performed by humans, which could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring,” wrote Georgieva, citing the IMF’s analysis.

“In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”

In emerging markets and lower-income nations, 40% and 26% of jobs are expected to be affected by AI, respectively, CNN reported.

Emerging markets refer to places such as India and Brazil with sustained economic growth, while low-income countries refer to developing economies with per capita income falling within a certain level such as Burundi and Sierra Leone.

“Many of these countries don’t have the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI, raising the risk that over time the technology could worsen inequality,” noted Georgieva.

She cautioned that the utilisation of AI might escalate the risk of social unrest, especially if younger and less experienced workers adopt the technology to enhance their productivity, leaving more senior workers struggling to keep pace.

AI emerged as a prominent subject at last year’s WEF in Davos when ChatGPT gained widespread attention. The chatbot sensation, driven by generative AI, initiated discussions on its potential to reshape global work dynamics by showcasing its capacity to compose essays, speeches, poems, and beyond.

Since then, upgrades to the technology have expanded the use of AI chatbots and systems, making them more mainstream and spurring massive investments.

Some tech firms have already directly pointed to AI as a reason they are rethinking staffing levels.

While workplaces may shift, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labor productivity and boost global GDP by 7% annually over 10 years, according to a March 2023 estimate by Goldman Sachs economists.

Georgieva, in her blog post, also cited opportunities to boost output and incomes around the world with the use of AI.

“AI will transform the global economy,” she wrote. “Let’s make sure it benefits humanity.”