As the crucial Karnataka assembly elections ended with a total of nearly 66 per cent voter turnout on Wednesday, multiple pollsters predicted a hung assembly in the southern state, with no main parties – the ruling BJP, the Congress, and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S) – getting a full majority to form a new government.
Since the exit polls results are out, the debate is now on will the regional party JD(S) once again emerges as a ‘kingmaker’, as it did in 2018, in the case of a hung verdict in the 2023 Karnataka polls. As per the predictions, it seems this time is no different.
With the possibility of hung house in Karnataka, JD(S) leader SS Shankaranna told CNN-News18 that no party will be able to form a government without the support of Janata Dal (Secular).
Karnataka Exit Poll Results 2023
While the ABP News-C Voter exit poll predicted that the Congress will get 100-112 seats, BJP 83-95, JD(S) 21-29, the Republic TV-P MARQ forecast that the grand old party will get 94-108 seats, the saffron party 85-100 and JD(S) 24-32.
The India TV-CNX predicted that the Congress may get 110-120 seats and the BJP 80-90 seats, while the JD(S) 20-24 seats.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll claimed that the Congress is expected to get 99-109 seats, the BJP 88-98 and the JD(S) 21-26 while the Zee News-Matrize forecast that the Congress likely to get 103-118, the BJP 79-94 and the JD(S) 25-33.
As per the News Nation-CGS poll, the BJP is liekly to get 114 seats, the Congress 86 and the JD(S) 21. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party was expected to bag 94-117, Congress 91-106 and the JD(S) 14-24 seats.
Times Now-ETG exit polls predicted 113 seats to the Congress, 85 to the BJP and 23 seats for JD(S).
JD(S) Campaign in 2023 Karnataka Polls
With internal rifts and the image of being a “family party”, Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy, managed the JD(S) campaign across Karnataka alone. He focused on the implementation of JD(S)’s five-fold programme called ‘Pancharatna’ — quality education, healthcare, housing, farmer welfare, and employment — if voted to power.
The 89-year-old Deve Gowda initially stayed away from campaigning due to age-related ailments, but later joined and campaigned for JD(S) candidates, especially in the stronghold Old Mysuru region.
2018 Karnataka elections
In the 2018, BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats out of total 224, followed by the Congress at 80 and JD(S) at 37.
With no party having a clear majority and as the Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, BJP’s BS Yediyurappa staked a claim and formed the government. However, he had to resign ahead of the trust vote as the saffron party failed to get the required numbers.
Eventually, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as chief minister, but it collapsed in 14 months after 17 MLAs resigned to join the BJP, facilitating the saffron party to come back to power.
History of JD(S)
JD(S), which was formed in 1999, has never formed a government on its own but had been in power twice in alliance with both national parties — for 20 months with BJP from February 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 Assembly polls- with Kumaraswamy as the chief minister.
The party’s best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 Assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 was its second best. In the 2018 polls, JD(S) won 37 seats.
The party’s vote share is stagnant. It has been ranging between 18-20 per cent, as the party has managed to continue its hold on to a sizeable number of constituencies, predominantly in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru region (south Karnataka).
It is this Gowda family’s hold over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region comprising 61 seats (excluding the 28 constituencies in Bengaluru), which the ruling BJP and Congress are looking forward to breaking and improving their prospects.
The Congress is considerably strong in Old Mysuru region and has been a traditional rival for the JD(S) in the belt, BJP however, is weak here.
(with inputs from PTI)
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