New Delhi: Badly mauled in the Lok Sabha electoral slugfest by Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and facing the prospects of a massive rebellion in his own party, Nitish Kumar decided to go for broke. A few hours after Lok Sabha results started pouring in, it became clear that a massive BJP wave was sweeping across Bihar and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United was staring at decimation.
By evening when the dust generated by the marathon Lok Sabha elections settled, Nitish Kumar was standing alone amidst the ruins. The JDU had been routed and its Lok Sabha MPs reduced to two from 20. Even JDU President Sharad Yadav, for whom Nitish had camped in Madhepura for 10 days, could not survive the Modi gale.
Aware that the murmurs of protests in his party over his decision to end the 17-year-old alliance with the BJP would gain currency and challenge his leadership, Nitish Kumar made up his mind. Late on Friday night he told his close aides that he was going to resign as Bihar Chief Minister. "Main nahi rahunga (I will not stay)," he told his colleagues.
Nitish Kumar was facing the challenge of not only quelling the rebellion in his party which was led by a group of forward caste MLAs but he had to also negotiate a landmine set up by Sharad Yadav, who had always been unhappy with his decision to walk out of the NDA. Keen to put Nitish Kumar on the mat, Sharad Yadav had opened a channel of communication with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad Yadav.
Even though Sharad Yadav is the JDU National President but he has always been forced to play second fiddle to Kumar, who brooks no interference in his functioning. Sensing the mood of the electorate, Sharad Yadav had in January sounded out Nitish Kumar that he was not keen on contesting the Lok Sabha election and instead wanted a safe passage to the Rajya Sabha. Nitish Kumar declined to entertain his request and told him that not contesting Lok Sabha election would send out a wrong signal.
Nitish Kumar's strategy after the Lok Sabha election rout was very clear. He wanted to not only stamp his authority once again on the JDU but also show Sharad Yadav who the real boss was. Moreover, Sharad Yadav's talks with RJD made the JDU leaders see red because even though they shared the same past, they had been claiming that their party was different as it had managed to rid Bihar of Lalu's "jungle raaj".
The massive protests in Patna and several other cities of Bihar asking Nitish Kumar to withdraw his resignation drove home the point very clearly. Moreover, the protesters also took umbrage over Sharad Yadav saying that Nitish Kumar would not take back his decision and JDU Legislative Party would choose a new leader.
They shouted slogans not only against Sharad Yadav but Revenue & Land Reforms Minister Ramai Ram, who had spoken against Nitish Kumar at the JDU meet on Sunday evening, also faced their ire. Ram was pushed and shoved around by JDU workers after he came out of the meet while Sharad Yadav had to be escorted away by security personnel.
BJP leaders had been watching the JDU implosion with glee but Nitish Kumar's resignation changed the game completely. BJP's calculation was that JDU MLAs from forward castes would leave the party and support them. Many BJP leaders had claimed that 52 JDU MLAs were in touch with them, but after Nitish Kumar's resignation bombshell, they developed cold feet and started saying that they did not want the government to fall.
Some of the JDU MLAs and a couple of ministers who were leading the rebellion did not get much support after Nitish Kumar's resignation and the show of strength in his support made them a bit wary. They quickly abandoned the idea of splitting from the party as there was no way of getting at least 80 MLAs to break the JDU and bypass the Anti-Defection Law.
In fact Bihar Agriculture Narendra Singh, who has been very vocal in opposing Nitish Kumar, was one of the first ones to demand that the Bihar Chief Minister take back his resignation during Sunday's meet. Several MLAs and workers threatened to sit on dharna until Nitish Kumar had withdrawn his resignation but the wily leader refused to budge and instead bought time till Monday morning.
With BJP claiming that he was indulging in a drama and would withdraw his resignation, Nitish Kumar was adamant not to give them any more points to attack him. Panned for his ego and often described as high headed, Nitish Kumar stuck to his guns, rallied his supporters around him and told them that he would nominate one of his confidants as Bihar Chief Minister.
After two days of high drama and virtually isolating Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar made it clear that the next Bihar Chief Minister would be his man. He also ensured that all the major decision would have his stamp. Since the entire Cabinet too resigned with him, Nitish Kumar will also have a major say in the appointing the new ministers. He is also free to expand the ministry as he had kept all the departments with the BJP under him since the split.
The leader who has replaced Nitish Kumar as Bihar Chief Minister is SC & ST, Backward & Economically Backward Classes Welfare Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit from the Musahar community. By this move he has also sent out clear signals that he is trying to uplift the Mahadalits, a category that he has been actively wooing in the last few years, by appointing Manjhi as the new Chief Minister.
With the next Assembly elections in November 2015, he also has enough time to concentrate on governance as elections are over and apart from the BJP no other party wants a mid-term election. All top JDU leaders have also made it clear that Nitish would guide the government, help strengthen the organisation and the party would face the next election under his leadership.
Just like Sonia Gandhi in 2004, Nitish Kumar too has tried to take the moral high ground by giving up power although it came in the backdrop of a massive electoral drubbing but as the events of the last couple of days show, he has succeeded in making a virtue out of a necessity.
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