Nandurbar Lok Sabha Elections: Few Bumps on the Road, But It's Advantage BJP

The Nandurbar (ST) Lok Sabha constituency is one of 48 parliamentary constituencies in Maharashtra. This seat is reserved for candidates from the Scheduled Tribes and comprises part of Dhule district and the entire Nandurbar district. Seven Assembly segments fall under the Nandurbar (ST) Lok Sabha constituency. Of these, the BJP currently holds three (Shahada-ST, Nandurbar-ST and Shirpur-ST), while the Congress holds two (Akkalkuwa-ST and Nawapur-ST). The Sakri-ST seat is held by an Independent.

Polling Date – May 13, 2024

Sitting MP – Dr Heena Vijaykumar Gavit (BJP)

Candidates – Dr Heena Vijaykumar Gavit (BJP), Gowaal K Padavi (Congress)

Political Dynamics

• Overview: Geographically, Nandurbar is an important district that sits at a tri-state border. Comprising part of the Satpura mountain ranges and Narmada River belt, Nandurbar in North Maharashtra also touches Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. It is one of Maharashtra’s poorest districts.
• Historically, Nandurbar was a Congress citadel since the first general elections in 1952 but the BJP breached the bastion during the Narendra Modi wave of 2014. Retaining the seat in 2019, the BJP has made deep inroads in Nandurbar as well as other North Maharashtra constituencies.
• Sources say the tribal population’s anger over the Manipur violence, apprehension over the Uniform Civil Code and the Congress allegations that the BJP is looking to rewrite the Constitution may dent the saffron party’s vote share in Nandurbar, but the popularity of sitting MP and BJP candidate Dr Heena Gavit may see the party through, albeit by a narrower margin.
• BJP: Gearing up to extend its victory run in the former Congress den, the BJP has fielded sitting MP Dr Heena Gavit for the third straight term.
• A medical graduate, Heena Gavit had ended the Congress’s 64-year dominance in Nandurbar with her first-ever Lok Sabha election in 2014. Her win had kept nine-term Congress MP Manikrao Gavit from clinching a record 10th term and had effectively ended his political career.
• In 2019, she had defeated Congress challenger KC Padavi by over 95,000 votes to retain the seat. In the 2024 elections, she has been challenged by Padavi’s son Gowaal K Padavi who is fighting on a Congress ticket.
• Heena is the daughter of former NCP minister Vijaykumar Gavit, who was sacked by the party before the 2014 elections after she joined the BJP and got a ticket from the Nandurbar seat.
• The focus of Heena Gavit’s campaign this time has been on women empowerment and the development of medical sector in the tribal belt.
• In the last 10 years, Dr Gavit is said to have built a strong image for herself among the voters.
• While the constituency continues to suffer from issues like malnutrition, sickle cell anaemia and poor maternal health, the last 10 years are said to have been some improvement in the health infrastructure.
• Objections to Nomination: Despite emerging as a giantkiller for the BJP in 2014, the support to Gavit’s nomination this time was not absolute with a section of local BJP unit demanding a change of candidate.
• Sources say that some local BJP leaders had been lobbying for the ticket and their supporters objected to Gavit getting the nomination. A section of the BJP unit has also complained of being sidelined in the seat.
• Sources added that some local leaders fear being permanently dwarfed by Gavit if she bags a hat-trick this time.
• Cross-Campaigning by Shiv Sena (Shinde): Apart from local BJP units, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena too objected to repeating the sitting MP thought it had no qualms with the seat going to the saffron party kitty in the Mahayuti seat-sharing.
• Shiv Sena (Shinde) leaders have complained that Gavit has been rather cold to the alliance partners in the constituency.
• Moreover, the truce between the Shinde camp and BJP for seat-sharing differences didn’t take in Nandurbar as it did in other areas of Maharashtra.
• Sources even say some local BJP leaders deliberately didn’t work towards a rapprochement in a calculated move to checkmate Heena Gavit’s rise.
• As per ground reports, significant sections of the Shiv Sena (Shinde) local units are openly campaigning for the Congress nominee instead.
• Congress: The grand old party enjoyed absolute electoral domination in the constituency for 64 years from 1952 till 2014.
• Former Union Minister of State for Home, Manikrao Gavit, had represented Nandurbar in the Lok Sabha for nine consecutive terms between 1981 and 2014.
• The grand old party lost its fortress to BJP’s Heena Gavit in the 2014 elections amid the Modi wave. The defeat ended Manikrao Gavit’s three-decade dominance in the constituency as he lost to Heena by around 1,06,000 votes.
• This time, the Congress will be missing Manikrao Gavit’s expertise in the region since the nine-time MP passed away in 2022.
• Quest to Regain Bastion: Given its close association with Nandurbar, the Congress cornered the seat for itself during seat-sharing talks with MVA partners Shiv Sena-UBT and NCP-SP.
• In its quest to regain the lost bastion, the grand old party has given the ticket to 32-year-old Bombay High Court advocate Gowaal K Padavi.
• The Nandurbar election is as much a personal mission for Padavi as a political one as sitting MP and BJP candidate Heena Gavit had defeated his father KC Padavi in the 2019 elections by 95,629 votes.
• While Akkalkuwa MLA KC Padavi too was in the running for the ticket, the Congress played it safe with his son amid cash-for-jobs allegations against Padavi Sr.
• One of the major disadvantages for Gowaal Padavi in this election is his low recall value among voters compared to two-time MP Heena Gavit. This is also his first election.
• Gowaal had reportedly caught the attention of Rahul Gandhi during the latter’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra earlier this year.
• Nehru-Gandhi Association: Nandurbar district is known for its connection with the Nehru-Gandhi family. In the earlier elections, family stalwarts like Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi had preferred to launch their election campaigns from Nandurbar.
• After joining active politics, Congress president Sonia Gandhi had addressed a rally in Nandurbar for the first time while launching the UPA government’s flagship Aadhaar scheme from the district.
• During a visit to the tribal-dominated Nandurbar district during his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in March, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said his party’s government would carry out a caste census and an economic and financial survey, and also strengthen the Forest Rights Act.
• He also promised to introduce a legislation to provide guaranteed Minimum Support Price (MSP) for farm and forest produce.
• Community Factors: Both BJP and Congress candidates are Bhils and as such the community votes are likely to be split between the two.
• In a blow to the BJP, however, around 2.5 lakh tribals who are Christian converts may not side with the party over alleged RSS campaign to get them delisted, depriving them of quota benefits.
• Concerns Over Constitution Controversy: The Congress allegations that the BJP is angling to change the Constitution and end reservations if it wins a third term at the Centre has found takers in the tribal-dominated Nandurbar constituency.
• Of the 18 lakh voters in Nandurbar, around 65% are from the Scheduled Tribes and fear losing the reservation provided to STs.
• Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been alleging that the BJP will “tear up and throw away” the Constitution if it retains power. Some other Congress functionaries had expressed apprehensions that the BJP may drop the word “secularism” from the Preamble of the Constitution.
• The Congress has also asked the BJP leaders to clear the party’s stance on whether it would remove the 50% on reservation for the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes, and the Other Backward Classes.
• Top BJP leaders have maintained during campaigning across India that the party has no intention of changing the Preamble or end reservations.
• It has accused the Congress of creating “fear psychosis” and resorting to spreading misinformation for “vote bank” politics.
• Manipur Incident Impact: Sources say the tribal community in Maharashtra’s Nandurbar is also angry at the BJP over the horrific episode in Manipur in May last year when two women from the Kuki-Zomi community were stripped naked and paraded before being sexually assaulted during the ethnic violence in the north-eastern state.
• Uniform Civil Code: The fear of losing special protection if included under the proposed central UCC is also a major election factor in Nandurbar.
• After the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K and the construction of a Ram Mandir at the Ram Janmabhoomi in Ayodhya, a central UCC is the only remaining promise among the BJP’s holy trinity of election promises. BJP-ruled Uttarakhand has already enacted its own Uniform Civil Code and speculation is rife that the saffron party may follow suit in other states or at the Centre in its third term.
• While the Uttarakhand UCC had kept tribal communities of its ambit amid much political controversy, tribal groups in states like Jharkhand, Maharashtra and other states are wary at the prospect of a central UCC.
• With the Law Commission’s consultation on the UCC going on, some tribal groups have demanded that they be kept out of the statute while opposition parties have accused the ruling BJP of taking up the issue as a poll gimmick.
• Advantage BJP Nevertheless: Despite the public sentiment over the above three issues, sources say the BJP is ahead in the race at the moment primarily due to the positive image Dr Heena Gavit has built for herself in the constituency over the last decade.
• Political observers, however, say her victory margin this time may be narrower.
• Game-Changing Visits: The constituency has been looking forward to two high-profile visits that could be game-changer for the respective candidates — Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
• The anticipation of Priyanka Gandhi’s visit is owing to her status as the daughter of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Sources say the first family of the Congress still enjoys affection and curiosity among the tribal communities of Nandurbar.
• Prime Minister Modi’s visit, meanwhile, is tipped to iron out differences within the BJP and the Mahayuti alliance in the constituency, which would be a big boost to Dr Gavit’s campaign.
• More than his government’s tribal outreach and schemes, it is the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana that has increased his popularity in Nandurbar.
• VBA a Non-Factor: Unlike other seats in Maharashtra, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is a non-factor in Nandurbar.
• In fact, its candidate Hanumant M Suryawanshi had even tried to withdraw his nomination but the same was rejected since he had not submitted it on VBA letterhead.

Key Constituency Issues

• Malnutrition: This is said to be the biggest and decades-long problem in Nandurbar. In 2006, a bunch of public interest litigations were filed highlighting the high number of deaths of children, pregnant women and lactating mothers due to malnutrition here.
• In 2022, during a hearing on the petitions, the Bombay High Court was informed that since January 2022 around 400 persons, including 86 children, had died in Nandurbar due to malnutrition and inadequate medical facilities.
• According to a 2019-2021 National Family Health Survey, 57.2% of children under five in Nandurbar are underweight, which is the second-highest percentage in the country.
• As of June-July 2022, 15% of children under six in Nandurbar were identified as malnourished, which is a significant increase from the previous survey in May, when only 7% were identified.
• Nandurbar has also consistently languished at the bottom of Maharashtra’s Human Development Index.
• Sickle Cell Anaemia: Nandurbar has the highest number of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) patients in the state, with 3,842 of the state’s 18,000 registered patients.
• SCA is a hereditary disorder that occurs when a person inherits two abnormal copies of haemoglobin from each parent, causing red blood cells to become sickle-shaped due to oxygen deficiency. Symptoms include body pain, weakness, fatigue, infections, and stroke.
• Nandurbar has been lacking basic health infrastructure, medicines, and specialists to treat SCA.
• However, the Armed Forces Medical College (AFMC) has established a satellite center in Nandurbar to study SCA.
• The Integrated Sickle Cell Anaemia Research Program (I-SCARP) in Nandurbar is also exploring naturopathy for curing SCA.
• Infant Deaths: Nandurbar had reported 179 child deaths in three months, with 70% of deaths occurring in babies aged 0–28 days.
• Chief Medical Officer of the district, Sawan Kumar, had said factors like low birth weight, birth asphyxia, sepsis, and respiratory diseases had led to the deaths.
• He added that 60% of deaths occur in two talukas of Nandurbar, where villages lack 12-month connectivity and have road problems, making it difficult for ambulances to reach.
• The CMO subsequently launched ‘Mission Lakshya 84 Days’ in September 2023 to address infant and maternal mortality. The mission allocates 42 days to antenatal care (ANC) and 42 days to postnatal care (PNC).
• According to a report in the Indian Express, home deliveries in the district dropped nearly five-fold between September 2023 and January 2024, with only 211 cases reported compared to 1,060 in the same period the previous year.
• Drought: Nandurbar is one of the drought-drone districts of Maharashtra. It is one of the 11 districts in the state that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, droughts and dwindling water security, as per a study by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI).
• As per the report, Nandurbar is the most vulnerable district to cyclones, floods, droughts, changing rainfall patterns and extreme temperatures, affecting its crop production.
• Forest Rights Act: Several families in Nandurbar district are waiting for their claims to be accepted under the Forest Rights Act.
• Considered a milestone in redressing the historical injustice done to Scheduled Tribes and other traditional forest dwellers, the Forest Rights Act 2006 aims to recognise forest rights of such communities living in forests for generations.
• According to government data, the FRA claim disposal rate in the last five years has come down from 87.72 per cent to 84.44 per cent.
• During his March visit to Nandurbar, Rahul Gandhi had alleged that the Bharatiya Janata Party governments have wrongly rejected thousands of claims under the Forest Rights Act and denied tribals access to the forests.
• Migration: With mass unemployment, Nandurbar also sees its youth and able workforce migrate to other districts of Maharashtra as well as Gujarat in search for employment.
• There is mass migration among farm workers and labourers in the agriculture sector too. This trend correlates with the increasing frequency and severity of drought conditions aggravated by climate change.
• Exploitation of Farm Workers: Most of the farm workers who migrate work in the sugar industry. The majority of those migrating for work cut sugarcane during the harvest season.
• Local labour contractors — known as “mukkadams” — typically hire husband-and-wife teams or “jodis” to work in pairs, not through formal contracts but informal agreements.
• A typical day for these labourers involves shifts ranging from 12 to 16 hours, throughout the six-month harvest period. Men usually cut the cane while the women tie and stack bundles.
• They are often subjected to wage deductions for work missed, creating a fear of taking any leave.

Voter Demographics

Social composition

SC — 4.01%

ST — 65%

Religious composition

Buddhist — 0.42%

Christian — 0.4%

Jain — 0.47%

Muslim — 6.95%

Sikh — 0.05%

Major Infra Projects in Nandurbar

• Hospital and Government Medical College: In February this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for a new 500-bed hospital in Nandurbar.
• The project, worth more than Rs 600 crore, includes the construction of the medical college, hospital, and related buildings, and will be dedicated to the tribal communities of Nandurbar.
• The project is expected to be completed by February 2026.
• Highway Projects: In April 2022, Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari inaugurated and laid foundation stones for two National highways projects worth Rs 1,791.46 crore in Dhule that would impetus to the economic development of Dhule and Nandurbar districts.
• The projects will make it easier for the citizens to reach tourist attractions like Brass Cave-Caves and Gautala Sanctuary, the world-famous Ajanta Caves and Daulatabad Fort.
• The Shewali-Nandurbar road project will be useful for the development of tribal areas in the region.
• Janjatiya Gaurav Corridor: The Janjatiya Gaurav Corridor is a Rs 70,000 crore initiative to improve rail connectivity and infrastructure in tribal-dominated regions of India.
• The initiative is part of the 2023-2024 budget and aims to help tribal communities, promote socio-economic growth, and address connectivity gaps.

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