Madha Lok Sabha Seat: Water, Jobs, And Matchmaking among Key Issues for Voters in This Maharashtra Constituency

Madha is one of the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies of Maharashtra comprising the Solapur and Satara districts. The constituency has six assembly segments: Karmala (independent), Madha (NCP), Sangola (Shiv Sena), Malshiras (BJP), Phaltan (NCP), and Man (BJP).

Ranjit Naik-Nimbalkar of the Bharatiya Janata Party is the incumbent MP here and has been renominated. The other top contenders are Dhairyasheel Mohite-Patil of the Nationalist Congress Party–Sharadchandra Pawar and Ramesh Baraskar of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA).

Polling will be held here on May 7 in the third phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Political dynamics

1. Madha, a seat which the BJP was expected to comfortably win only two months ago has now turned into one of the hottest electoral battlefields in Maharashtra, one which is being keenly observed for the simple fact that Sharad Pawar was able to turn the tables weeks before the election. For many, Madha represents one of those seats where the NCP (Sharad Pawar) is waging an existential battle. After his party broke up into two factions, Pawar Senior is fighting to retain his strongholds this election. If he is unsuccessful, his faction of the NCP would likely be pushed down a very dark road of political irrelevance. Sharad Pawar himself represented the constituency in 2009.
2. The opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi is fighting the election in Madha with renewed vigour ever since Sharad Pawar dealt a severe blow to the BJP. Pawar Senior has fielded Dhairyasheel Mohite-Patil from Madha. Mohite-Patil quit the BJP just a month before Madha was scheduled to go to polls. In the saffron camp, Patil was a heavyweight and the district general secretary. His addition to the Maha Vikas Aghadi has provided the NCP-SP with much-needed impetus in the constituency. Mohite-Patils are an influential political family in western Maharashtra, and the NCP-SP hopes to reap the benefits of this induction in neighbouring constituencies as well.
3. Mohite-Patil quit the BJP after being denied a ticket from Madha. He was among some other important leaders who had come out in open rebellion against the party’s decision to give the ticket to Ranjit Nimbalkar. Pawar had earlier offered the candidature for Madha to Rashtriya Samaj Paksha chief Mahadev Jankar. However, the BJP overnight managed to prevail over him to change his decision and in return offered the Parbhani seat from ally Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s quota to the RSP. Jankar is a leader of the Dhangar community, which has a strong presence in the Madha, Baramati, Solapur, and Satara Lok Sabha constituencies.
4. There is local-level anti-incumbency that appears to be aiding the NCP-SP and Maha Vikas Aghadi’s campaign in Madha. The NCP-SP candidate’s focus on local issues appears to be putting the BJP on a back foot as well. The saffron party though is trying to convince voters that a vote for the BJP is important not just for the resolution of local issues, but future of the country at large. The NCP-SP is especially attacking the BJP on the water crisis which Madha faces, and the slow pace of initiatives to resolve the problem.
5. The Maha Vikas Aghadi also appears to be getting successful in rekindling caste-based politics in Madha, which could again spell trouble for the BJP. Sharad Pawar’s army of workers and leaders has managed to grab voters’ attention and appears to be making headway in convincing them to vote for Mohite-Patil. The candidate himself is a well-known face on the ground, which is obviously going to benefit the NCP-SP. The BJP’s Ranjit Naik-Nimbalkar, on the other hand, lacks ground-connect with voters.
6. There is also chatter which suggests that a sympathy wave is set to benefit the Maha Vikas Aghadi. On the ground, it is not difficult to come by people who think that it was not right for the Shiv Sena and NCP – both strong regional players in Maharashtra – to be split into different factions. Meanwhile, there are also voters who have no qualms admitting that they feel let down by all parties.
7. In 2019, the BJP wrested Madha from the NCP, but by a margin of just about 85,000 votes. Now that the contest here has turned so tight, the BJP is visibly apprehensive of seeing the NCP-SP make up the gap and win the seat.
8. For the BJP, the biggest blows in Madha have come after the announcement of its candidate, Ranjit Naik-Nimbalkar. The biggest protesters of the decision were Dhairyasheel Mohite-Patil and Ramraje Naik Nimbalkar. Patil has joined Sharad Pawar’s NCP and has been made the party’s candidate from Madha, in what has emerged as the single-biggest challenge for the BJP here so far. Nimbalkar, who is with the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, has been under pressure from supporters to rejoin the Sharad Pawar faction. However, he has reportedly said no to the possibility, at least for the foreseeable future. He has openly opposed Ranjit Naik Nimbalkar’s candidature, saying he should not be held responsible if the BJP candidate is defeated in the Lok Sabha elections.
9. However, it’s not all too gloomy for the BJP just yet. It is a strong political force in Madha and could very well retain the seat. This would, however, depend a lot on whether the saffron party is able to get its “silent voters” out on polling day. Ground inputs suggest there is a significant portion of the electorate that is neither visible on the ground, nor active on social media, but appears to have made up its mind to support the BJP.
10. Meanwhile, the BJP itself is trying to inflict psychological damage on the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Apart from roping in Mahadev Jankar and his RSP into the Mahayuti, the BJP has also been trying to get Uttamrao Jankar on its side. Jankar, a Dhangar leader from Malshiras taluka in Solapur is an influential leader whom both the BJP and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are keen to partner with. It remains to be seen which bloc he picks, but whoever Jankar supports is poised to get a significant chunk of Dhangar votes. In Madha and Solapur together, Dhangars are estimated to have at least 10 lakh votes.
11. Also, now that Mohite-Patil has quit the BJP and the family’s supporters are expected to vote en masse for the NCP-SP, the saffron party is banking on the Shindes here. The Shindes and Mohite-Patils are arch-rivals. The BJP is relying on the support of Babanrao and Sanjay Shinde, who jointly control at least four sugar factories and other cooperative institutions in Solapur. While this strategy is primarily for Solapur, the impact is expected to be felt in Madha as well – owing to the proximity and similarity between the two constituencies.
12. The BJP has been forced to rework its strategy after Mohite-Patil’s exit. Now, the BJP’s plan is to capitalise on the dissatisfaction among local politicians about Mohite-Patil’s candidacy, utilising the backing of these key local figures to improve its chances in the Madha.
13. Besides, the BJP also has the Modi factor to rely on. Prime Minister Modi’s campaign here, with Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde, and the BJP candidate on stage is expected to provide the saffron party with a much-needed boost. Whether it will be sufficient to retain the seat in the face of a resurgent NCP remains to be seen.
14. The BJP can also take solace in the fact that like in many other seats of Maharashtra, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi of Prakash Ambedkar could divert Dalit and SC votes away from the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Ramesh Baraskar is the VBA’s candidate in Madha.

Key issues

Water scarcity: Madha has been facing a situation of severe water scarcity for three generations. People have adjusted to the non-availability of water, sometimes up to weeks. Reports suggest that people are miffed at the promises made by the politicians which they so far have failed to deliver on. People are mainly dependent on water tankers whose price and subsidy have become one of the core election issues in the region. During severe droughts, people lament the condition of the smaller livestock like goats and sheep which die of thirst. This also increases the economic pressure on the people, especially those engaged in the agriculture and dairy sectors.

Matchmaking: Voters here, especially single men, want a candidate who can help them find suitable matches and get married. The situation is dire as more than 25,000 young men from the constituency were struggling to find brides as young women and their parents were inclined towards government employees or those with fixed incomes. A large part of the constituency falls under Solapur district, where the child sex ratio is among the lowest in the state; according to the 2011 census, 883 girls were born in the district per 1,000 boys. Consequently, many young men from the district and neighbouring areas have faced multiple rejections from potential brides across the state.

Lack of industries: Apart from a few sugar mills there are no big industries in Madha. People are bereft of economic development and have voiced their concerns regarding this. The constituents have also demanded that the government set up industries in the region to provide employment and help in economic development.

Unemployment and emigration: A majority of the population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. The lack of central government projects and industries has led to the migration of the working class and youth from Madha towards the urban centres of Pune and Mumbai or Gujarat in search of better opportunities. To address the issue of emigration and to ensure the generation of employment, the government is setting up an automobile industrial hub in Phaltan which is in its final stages and a National Industrial Corridor in Man and Malshiras.

Farmers’ issues: Agriculture has been a good source of revenue for the people of Madha, with most of the population involved in this sector. However, people believe that the government has not been proactive in improving or scaling up production to bring bigger economic gains. People have demanded storage and processing infrastructure and have called for the export of sugarcane that is grown here. Moreover, small and poor farmers still face issues with irrigation as they do not have private systems in place to irrigate the fields. This also causes crop loss and crop failure which leads to unmanageable debts as compensation is often delayed, sometimes for years. Farmers are struggling with low prices for their crops and have demanded an increase in MSP. However, the farmers’ protest has had no effect here.

Demographics

• Total voters: 19,63,601
• SC: 288,649 (14.7%)
• ST: 17,672 (0.9%)
• Urban voters: 188,506 (9.6%)
• Rural voters: 1,775,095 (90.4%)
• Hindus: 95.5%
• Muslims: 3.7%
• Buddhists: 2.1%
• Voter turnout in 2019: 63.5%

Key infrastructure

Nira Deoghar Project: It is a pipeline project which aims to supply water to areas from Madha Lok Sabha constituency falling in the Satara and Solapur districts. The foundation stone was laid by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis in January 2024. It is being constructed at a cost of Rs 4,000 crore.

Dhom Balkawadi Tunnel: The Dhom Balkawadi Tunnel Major Irrigation Project is situated in the Satara district of Maharashtra. The dam across Krishna river is located near Balkawadi village in Taluka Wai, 32 km from Wai town. The project envisages the construction of a 1,211-m-long earthen dam with a maximum height of 65.10 m and three radial gates of size 12mx5m to carry a maximum design flood of 1,758 cumecs. It is set to be concluded soon.

Automobile industrial hub and National Industrial Corridor: The government has envisaged setting up an automobile industrial hub in Phaltan and a National Industrial Corridor in Man and Malshiras, which will generate employment and lead to the overall development of the region.

NH 161: The Sangli-Solapur national highway is an ongoing project by the Centre. It is being built at a cost of Rs 3,127 crore and will have a length of 154.1 km.

Railways: There is a strong focus on modernisation, with upgrades like LED lighting, new train services connecting major cities, and increased frequency on existing routes – all of which is improving connectivity to Madha. Safety is also a priority, evident in the construction of numerous road over and under bridges. Passenger comfort is getting a boost too, with investments in amenities like water coolers and platform covers. Ongoing projects, like improved lighting and platform extensions, are bringing a much-needed fillip to railway infrastructure here.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.