India would like a clear mandate when the results of General Elections 2009 are announced. A government which has a strong majority and free of the compulsions of coalition politics would enable the country to tackle the economic crisis. But are the country’s two top parties capable of winning enough seats for their alliances? IBNLive readers asked IBN Network's Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai on Tuesday.
Div: In CNN-IBN’s pre-election analysis on Monday, when data on people's perception on Government’s performance was compared with similar data from before the 2004 Lok Sabha elections there was a mismatch between these perceptions and the actual election results. The same mismatch was noted (both this time and in the data from the last election) when people were asked whom they would actually vote for. Is this because of the difference between votes polled and seats won in our first-past-the-post system, or could it because of some errors in opinion polling?
Rajdeep Sardesai: India's elections are much too complex. In the end, no one knows the final result till the counting day.
Kiran Kundapur: It’s very much sure that there will be less than 10 MPs from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and all North East states who would be supporting NDA post-2009 elections—definitely less than 10 from Andhra. So by ruling out these almost 180 seats, the NDA is aiming to become single largest party out of 360 seats left with. So chances are high for UPA to enjoy the power again. What is your take on this?
Rajdeep Sardesai: You have pointed out the NDA's dilemma well. The UPA's allies though too in states like Bihar and Tamil Nadu are not in great health. Both sides have much to be concerned about.
Bhaskar Albert: Do we really need an majority Government for the development of the nation?
Rajdeep Sardesai: We need a government that governs, majority or minority.
Kapil Chhabra: Will the worldwide economic recession hit the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government’s prospects in the elections, specially votes from lower cadres of society.
Rajdeep Sardesai: It could. The UPA has much to worry about because of the slowdown and unemployment.
Narayanan S: What will be the core issue on which this election is fought?
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Rajdeep Sardesai: The core issue, I believe, will be who is in a better off position, either at state, national or local level, to handle the economic slowdown.
Sid: Right now the trend seems to be very appalling for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP has fewer allies and those it has want to appear secular. Will this affect BJP's growth?
Rajdeep Sardesai: The UPA appears to have an advantage at the moment of more allies, but lots can change in the next 10 weeks. Not all the UPA's allies are in good health.
Bharat: What is the extent to which English channels in India can influence the electorate? With the middle class hardly voting, don’t you think that some of these channels are overrating themselves?
Rajdeep Sardesai: I never said we can influence voting. The Indian voter is very wise, no one can influence him.
Madhur Srivastava: Who can guide India better in the economic and terror crisis: Manmohan Singh or L K Advani?
Rajdeep Sardesai: You decide.
K S Ramki: Do you really think the UPA Government provided good governance? You are palpably anti-BJP in your approach to national politics, but will you try to be neutral on issues concerning safety and security of the country if a BJP-led coalition comes to power again?
Rajdeep Sardesai: I think, like all governments, the UPA has some things to be proud of like the Right to Information, Indo-US nuclear deal and it has much to be disappointed of, like the lack of drive in key infrastructure projects and ministerial corruption.
Narenarun: In the Assembly Elections in Delhi, the BSP put up Punjabi and Pandit candidates and ate into BJP’s voteshare, This time BSP has given ticket to three Muslims. Can the BSP be an alternative to Congress and BJP?
Rajdeep Sardesai: The BSP is more of spoiler. It hasn’t achieved a critical mass outside up.
Ranjeet Jaswal: Will the Mumbai terror attacks hurt the UPA Government during polls?
Rajdeep Sardesai: The UPA seems to have handled the Mumbai terror attacks. Traditionally, though, the BJP does tend to benefit from national security-related issues.
Natarajan: You once wrote that Indian leaders were not comfortable to an US-style debate on live TV. Instead, can you host a questionnaire/response of popular stance of various political parties on your website. The parties may not be as wary of a written response as of a live one.
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Rajdeep Sardesai: Still hoping for a Sonia Gandhi versus L K Advani open public debate.
Bharat Agnihotri: In the last Assembly Elections there was some talk about the delimitation process and increase in the number of seats for the urban centres. Is it the same for the Lok Sabha elections and which party do you think is it going to benefit?
Rajdeep Sardesai:: This is going to be the X factor of this election. Constituencies are changing dramatically, and will have an effect on results for sure.
Bunty: What will happen if we once again get a hung Parliament in 2009 too?
Rajdeep Sardesai:: I think a hung Parliament will breed uncertainty.
Sweekruti Mohanty: CNN-IBN’s show ‘A Billion Votes’ points out the various factors that will decide the fate of the recent elections. How authentic is your research, as it has been conducted within a sample size of 20,000 people but that doesn’t necessarily reflect the voice of the entire country?
Rajdeep Sardesai:: 20,000 is a fairly large sample for a poll of this kind. US polls are done with around a 5,000 sample.
Venugopal V: Is the ‘Third Front’, an alternative to the Congress and BJP, really viable?
Rajdeep Sardesai:: The Third Front cannot form a government without the support of a national party. Also, the third front is not cohesive. I won’t be surprised if it splinters after the polls.
K S Prasad: I think post elections the BSP, TDP and AIADMK would support NDA and Mayawati would be given deputy PM post by the BJP.
Rajdeep Sardesai:: Mayawati and Jayalalitha could go to whoever gives them the best deal. Mayawati wants the Prime Minister’s post, if not the deputy PM’s. Jayalalitha wants the centre to dismiss Karunanidhi.
Gaurav Pant: What do you want us to perceive by publishing the blogs of Sudheendra Kulkarni and H D Devegowda on IBNLive. Are you selling space to parties on your channel's website?
Rajdeep Sardesai: We are encouraging political parties across the spectrum to share their opinion. We want diverse opinions to be expressed on the site. We want to spark off a healthy debate on national issues.
Srinivasan: Since 1984, General Elections have always thrown up hung parliaments. With this scenario more or less certain, who do you think has the best chance of becoming the PM? What number would Congress or BJP (individually) want to cross to stake claim?
Rajdeep Sardesai: I think the key is who out of the BJP and Congress gets more seats. That party will have an edge in the prime ministerial stakes. The key players in a post-poll scenario could be Jayalalitha and Mayawati. But the real key could lie in whether the SP-Cong alliance works in UP.
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Mehul: Why do a lot of people that CNN-IBN is anti-Hindu? Even I feel so.
Rajdeep Sardesai: That is very sad if you feel so. CNN-IBN is a fiercely independent channel; our commitment is to the truth above all else
Adithya Reddy: Do you think Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are in similar positions in their respective parties?
Rajdeep Sardesai: I think Modi and Rahul could well be the faces of their respective parties in 2014
Mahesh: Will NCP tie up with Shiva Sena in Maharashtra?
Rajdeep Sardesai: Not for now. (NCP leader) Sharad Pawar would like to keep all his options open at this stage. A tie-up with the Shiv Sena would not work for him.
Noor: Do u think congress will hold on to its present tally of 151 seats in the next election?
Rajdeep Sardesai: I think both the Congress and the BJP will struggle to hold onto their present tallies as of now.
Indresh: You haven't answered the most important questions - this shows your political acumen.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Playing safe!
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