New Delhi: It is almost an existential crisis for two of the tallest politicians in Bihar. Faced with a confident, charged up and focused adversary in the form of Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, contesting Assembly elections alone would surely obliterate both Lalu Prasad and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar from the political landscape, at least for some time to come.
After the mauling Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal United of Nitish Kumar received at the hands on NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the only option before them was to shed their bitter rivalry and join hands to take on the new adversary. While NDA had steamrolled the opposition during 2014 Lok Sabha elections winning 31 out of the 40 seats in Bihar, the other nine fell into the kitty of RJD (4), JDU (2), Congress (2) and Nationalist Congress Party (1).
But the coming together of RJD, JDU, Congress and NCP presents a very formidable challenge to the NDA. When the Narendra Modi wave was at its peak in April-May 2014, the BJP with its allies Lok Janshakti party and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party bagged 39% votes, but the opposition camp, then a divided house, towered above it with 47%. If the voters making the same choice in Bihar Assembly elections scheduled in September-October 2015, then the writing on the wall is very clear.
With Nitish Kumar still enjoying the image of a clean, development oriented and hardworking leader, the JDU-RJD-Congress alliance hopes to pull back a sizable chunk of the voters who had opted for the NDA in 2014 keeping in mind that it was a national election. Naming Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate had given back the initiative to the alliance. The BJP has till now indicated that it may prefer going in to the battle with Modi still as its mascot and decide on the chief minister if NDA wins the elections.
Lack of options:
Lalu is a very tough nut to crack and knows Nitish is the biggest name in Bihar politics today. No RJD leader comes anywhere close to Nitish. Lalu has also ensured that he runs RJD through a close coterie which now includes his children and a few others resulting in a total lack of second rung leadership.
His wife Rabri Devi was Bihar CM for almost 8 years but is a political novice and even during her tenure Lalu used to run the show. His daughter Misa Bharti lost Lok Sabha elections to friend-turned-foe Ram Kirpal Yadav while the two sons, Tejaswi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav, are too young and inexperienced.
Only an alliance with the JDU would ensure his political survival as he himself is barred from contesting following his conviction and sentencing for five years in jail in a fodder scam case. There are more cases against him and his legal troubles are not going to end any time soon.
Both Nitish and BJP also know Lalu does not have too many options and his troubles will only mount if there are not-so-friendly governments in New Delhi as well as Patna. Even then Lalu played a tough game and opposed Nitish as chief ministerial candidate, well aware of the fact that neither JDU nor Congress would accept anyone from the RJD.
Although he commands a committed vote bank yet there are huge gaps in it now. The most prominent being the parting of ways with Ram Kirpal Yadav in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Here Nitish got his timing right and got the Congress to endorse his name. Facing legal trouble, a bitter rival in New Delhi and his own party no longer what it used to be 15 years back, Lalu had no option but to propose Nitish's name when he met Samajwadi party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav in New Delhi.
Yet, in Bihar's deeply divided caste politics it is not the image or the work done by a government that gets vote. Getting the caste arithmetic is the key to power in Patna. With Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate and Lalu's backing, the JDU-RJD-Congress combine seems to have got its pieces at the right place on the chess board.
An uneasy alliance:
Even the coming together of Lalu and Nitish has not been easy due to the bitter parting of the two leaders in the 1990s followed by an acerbic relationship they shared till a year back. While both Lalu and Nitish are the product of the same ideology and worked together very closely till 1994, yet the former's iron grip over the party in Bihar, lack of development programme, promoting cronies at the expense of seasoned leaders apart from a casual and castiest approach towards administration saw the latter moving out and forming his own party.
From mid 1994 till May 2014, a period of two decades, both Lalu and Nitish could not see eye to eye on any issue. While Lalu remained close to Congress, Nitish joined the NDA and enjoyed fruits of power both at the Centre and Bihar, becoming the chief minister of the state for the first time for as brief period of seven days in 2000 only to see RJD bounce back to power.
JDU and BJP finally managed to end the 15-year long Lalu-Rabri Devi "jungle raj" in Bihar in November 2005. "Jungle raj" was a term coined by Lalu's political rivals to highlight the complete breakdown of law and order under his rule in Bihar, lack of development, ascendency of criminal elements in all walks of life along with the flight of business and capital.
Nitish was the leading light of the anti-Lalu brigade and it was no surprise that he became the chief minister of the state for the second time in November 2005 after the JDU-BJP combine swept away the RJD to capture power. From the big gun of Bihar politics, Lalu was reduced to one of the also rans. The 2010 elections dealt him another huge blow as the JDU-BJP combine riding on Nitish's "sushashan" image completely decimated the opposition to retain power.
Even after reducing the opposition to almost a cipher, Nitish's biggest rival remained Lalu and the two never missed an opportunity to target each other. While Nitish would keep credit himself for the improvement in law and order along with several other development programmes especially better roads and power situation, Lalu minced no words while taking on the Bihar Chief Minister and called him an "agent of communal forces".
But things changed dramatically with the rise of the then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi within the BJP echelons as elections to the 16th Lok Sabha approached.
Ever since the 2002 riots in Gujarat, Nitish had ensured that Modi remained a persona non grata in Bihar as he assiduously wooed the Muslim community, who are almost 17% of the population. What started as an antipathy towards Modi soon became a prestige issue for Nitish who ended his 17-year long alliance with the BJP in 2013.
The rest as they say is history. With Modi propelling the NDA to power at the Centre and taking over as the Prime Minister of India, Nitish was clearly boxed into a corner as his dreams of playing an important leader of the anti-BJP brigade lay in tatters.
After stepping down as Bihar CM, propping Manjhi and then losing control over him made Nitish realise that unless he took charge and had the backing of an equally strong caste combination as the BJP's, his political future was in jeopardy.
Lalu was in the same boat and they found a common cause in treating the enemy's enemy as their friend. Now the biggest challenge for Lalu and Nitish is to bring their respective vote banks, who have fought each other bitterly for more than two decades, on one platform.
Role of Jitan Ram Manjhi:
The joker in the pack seems to be Jitan Ram Manjhi, a former Bihar chief minister and one-time party colleague of both Lalu and Nitish. His almost nine-month long tenure may have generated a lot of controversy, but Manjhi is hopeful of playing the role of a kingmaker. He is already in talks with the BJP but going by his chequered past, it won't be a big surprise if he comes back to his one-time mentors just before or after the elections.
BJP is eyeing Manjhi hoping that he may cut into Nitish's Mahadalit vote bank and ensure JDU-RJD-Congress alliance's defeat. While Manjhi may be keen to avenge his "humiliation" at the hands of Nitish and has made it clear that he won't join any front which has the Bihar Chief Minister in it, his options too are extremely limited.
In LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, the NDA already has a tall Dalit leader and Manjhi crashing into the party will not go unchallenged. Paswan has his own turf to defend and the wily leader from Bihar knows very well that BJP will use any bargaining chip to undermine him lest he creates trouble for the party.
BJP has been trying very hard to send across the message that the JDU-RJD partnership is one of deceit and Nitish is bringing back "jungle raj 2" by joining hands with Lalu. While Modi may still be a factor but as Delhi Assembly elections showed, states are won and lost on entirely different issues many of which don't even exist during Lok Sabha elecdtions.
After the cementing of Nitish-Lalu friendship, BJP leaders in Bihar have their task cut out. A small slip and it may be the end of their dream of capturing power.
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