New Delhi: An internal pre-poll survey conducted by the Bharatiya Janata Party has indicted a three-cornered contest in the UP Assembly polls among Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the BJP.
According to party sources, the survey has, in fact, predicted a modest 100 seats for the BJP, while its alliance partners Janata Dal (U) and Apna Dal are not expected to secure more than 15 seats.
A CNN-IBN-Indian Express pre-poll survey has, however, warned that the BJP could be up for the worst-ever performance in the state in the last two decades with the seat share falling to just about 45-55 seats.
The CNN-IBN-Indian Express survey has also hinted at a poor performance for the Congress. In fact, the grand old party does not appear to be in a position to translate its potential support into votes and is not placed any better than its worst-ever show in 2002.
The survey predicts that 30-40 seats are likely to go to smaller parties and independents, including Ajit Singh’s RLD and Raj Babbar’s Jan Morcha in a hung Assembly situation.
BJP’s internal survey, too, suggests that not much has changed in the political landscape in UP and neither of the major alliances or parties will be able to form a government on their own.
The survey predicts 110 seats for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, 32 less than its current strength in the outgoing House. The survey says BSP is going to be the net largest gainer this time, managing to practically double its tally to 125 from 67 seats it holds at present.
The Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal, the survey says, would get about 35 and 10 seats, respectively, with others and independents managing to win the remaining 18 seats.
The BJP has already gone on record saying that it is not in favour of any post-poll alliance and the party will try to form the government in the state only if the NDA (BJP in alliance with JD(U) and Apna Dal) gets a clear majority.
BJP leaders have also said that the party's collaboration with the BSP was a remote possibility given the previous bad experience, when the two sides parted ways on an acrimonious note after Mayawati refused to back a BJP-led government, as agreed.
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