While the entire world is busy following the war between Russia, a nuclear power, and Ukraine, a smaller non-nuclear neighbour, two giant nuclear nations in Asia — China and India — continue to be locked in a border standoff since May 2020.
In 2013, Chinese patrols came in strength in Depsang Plains, southeast of Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in Ladakh, and restricted the movement of Indian patrols east of Y Junction ever since. The Doklam incident at the tri-junction of China, India and Bhutan took place in 2017 wherein Indian troops staunchly challenged the Chinese ingress in the strategically important Chicken’s Neck of Siliguri Corridor. Three years after the Doklam standoff, in May 2020 during the peak of COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese troops ingressed into the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at five locations, but these ingresses were promptly challenged by alert and efficient Indian patrols. Chinese troops ingressed into Depsang, Galwan, Hot Springs, Gogra and North Bank of Pangong Tso Lake (Fingers 1 to 8 area).
At Galwan, Chinese and Indian troops clashed on 15/16 May, 2020 and in a premeditated move, Chinese troops hit Indian troops with iron rods, batons wrapped in barbed wire and clubs embedded with nails. The Indian troops asked for reinforcements and engaged in hand-to-hand fight, using stones, batons, iron rods and other makeshift weapons. In the ensuing clashes, 20 Indian soldiers, including Commanding Officer Colonel Santosh Babu, died and 76 soldiers were injured. There were large number of casualties on the Chinese side as well. Officially Chinese government stated four were dead and several wounded but the US, Russian, Australian and British sources confirmed 25-40 deaths, including a commanding officer. Fourteen rounds of Corps Commander talks have been held since, resulting in partial de-escalation in certain areas like Galwan, Hot Springs and Gogra and complete de-escalation in areas south of Pangong Tso lake. The ‘status quo’ of April 2020 stressed upon by India is far from having been achieved.
Reasons for Chinese Adventurism
The reasons for the Chinese adventurism were many, including improvement of infrastructure along the Tibetan plateau on the Indian side, especially the construction of Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road which, as per Chinese claims, threatens strategically the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Karakoram Pass. Another likely reason is that the World Heath Organisation (WHO) had ordered an inquiry looking into the start and spread of COVID-19 with India and several other countries supporting it. China wanted to use this ingress as a leverage and put pressure on India to go slow.
The most important reason, however, was abrogation of Article 370 and dividing Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories of Ladakh and J&K. The maps made public showed Aksai Chin as part of Ladakh and this infuriated China. One reason could also be the talk about militarisation of Quad and China giving a tacit warning to India not to cozy up with the US, Japan and Australia. Domestic dissent in China began to be expressed on social and print media against government’s tackling of the pandemic and its ongoing economic policies, and for the first time, the authority of the supreme leader, Xi Jinping, began to be challenged. The major reason for the border skirmishes is attributed to diversion of attention from domestic problems to galvanise national support for President Xi.
Ever since China’s economy opened up in 1979 under Deng Xiaoping and the country started participating in globalisation activities, the Chinese leadership remained on the path of peaceful consolidation of comprehensive national power till 2016. The party under Xi Jinping, in a bid to consolidate his position and project him as a strong leader, started flexing its muscle in the South China Sea, followed by the Doklam incident. Once the second term was confirmed in 2018, all efforts were synergised to make Xi Jinping a leader for lifetime, with the two-term limit on presidency removed. Inspiration was drawn from Vladimir Putin in Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.
Impact of Russia-Ukraine War
At LAC, the slow progress on de-escalation, in spite of the constant diplomatic and military efforts, resulted in semi-permanency of deployment of troops on both sides. Additional forces including armour, engineering and air defence were moved forward by both sides and remained on the higher heights during the severe winters of 2020-2021. Indian armed forces, fed up by the slow de-escalation process, in an audacious plan occupied the torturous heights of Rezang La, Reqin La, Black Top, Hanan, Helmet, Gurung Hill, Gorkha Hill and Magar Hill south of Pangong Tso lake in the end of August 2020 and took the Chinese by total strategic surprise. The Chinese issued several threats and resorted to posturing of troops but the gallant Indian troops stood their ground and continued to occupy their positions in spite of the severe winters. The Chinese leadership was rattled as India had scored a psychological and strategic high ground and the myth of 1962 was once again broken.
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Within two-three months of the bloody clashes at Galwan, based on hectic corps-, divisional- and brigade-level talks, partial disengagement from Galwan, Hot Springs and Gogra took place by August 2020. However, China continues to enhance its build up and has constructed pre-fabricated shelters in close vicinity of these flash points. The Chinese with persistent negotiation efforts were able to achieve complete de-escalation in Pangong Tso sector in February 2021 where Indian troops were holding commanding and dominating heights. However, Chinese build up remains in the east of Finger 4 area, and the area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 which was earlier patrolled by India remains under Chinese domination. It is felt that the present ground positions and deployment of Chinese troops inhibit access to previously patrolled area to the Indian troops as per our perception of the LAC.
The economic and security fallouts of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are going to be global with a need to redefine the balance of power in the region. China, however, need not take the wrong lessons from the asymmetric war because both India and China are responsible nuclear nations. Although the brave Ukrainian army and civilians are putting up an unexpected resistance, the military balance is grossly in favour of the Russians; China should know that the conventional gap between India and China can be bridged by leveraging nuclear capability.
The wounds of Galwan had not dried when India gave a befitting reply to the Chinese interventionist and hegemonic designs and intentions in August 2020. China suffered a bloody nose that reminded it of the 1967 Nathu La incident, once again showing the grit and determination of an Indian soldier who is ably led by superb junior- and middle-level leadership. China has to exhibit more maturity and responsibility commensurate with a growing global power turning into a super power, in the South China Sea and along the Sino-Indian border. It also needs to have a relook at its economic situation and address the widening gap between the rich and the poor and check its erring economic and commercial institutions.
Lt Gen IS Singha, AVSM, VSM (Retd), was Colonel of Rajputana Rifles. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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