The second wave of coronavirus has turned into a tsunami and now more people are rushing to get vaccinated. But many are wondering if everyone will get the jab. The Narendra Modi government has made all preparations to fulfill people’s aspiration, and by the end of this year, it is planning to make available more than 250 crore vaccines to get the entire adult population vaccinated. Should this happen, this will be another major achievement of the Modi government.
The way this virus has ravaged the country, people now think that vaccines offer maximum safety against it and that is the reason why people in the 18-plus age group want to get the shot as soon as possible. When the vaccination drive kick-started on January 16 for doctors and health workers, not everyone was keen to get the jab. Many had doubts regarding the efficacy of the vaccines as they were allowed under emergency authorisation and the data of phase-3 trials was still not available. The opposition was raising the issue of vaccine efficacy.
When Will My Turn Come?
But the whole scenario changed in merely four months. Now the vaccine centres are crowded, especially after vaccination for people in the 18-44 age group started from May 1. Many have complained that the CoWin website is often not able to show availability of vaccine slots for the 18-plus age group. This is perhaps a reason why people in this age group are more restless and want to get themselves vaccinated.
Second Wave Worries Indians
With the country reporting over 3 lakh cases per day and over 3,000 deaths every day, people are worried. During the first wave, COVID-19 was considered fatal for the elderly, but in the second wave, it’s the youth who are suffering more. Until March, most people were under the impression that India had moved past the COVID threat. However, over the next one month, many were scrambling for hospital beds and oxygen.
As a result, more people are now trying to get vaccinated as early as possible. Nearly 40 days ago, on April 6, when Union Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers Mansukh Mandaviya went to take the vaccine at RML, Delhi, not many people were there. Just six weeks later, everyone is asking him how will the process of vaccine production be expedited and by when can everyone get it.
Plan in Place to Ramp up Vaccine Production
The Centre has put a massive plan in place to increase the production of the vaccines in the country. Under this, the Centre has not only allowed three vaccines, but is also working to ensure their production is being ramped up. It is expected that in the next 3-4 months, half a dozen more vaccines will be available; their rapid production in the country is also being planned. The world’s largest vaccine producer, Serum Institute of India, is ramping up its production of Covishield vaccine while production of Covaxin, indigenously developed, is also being increased.
Production of more than 250 crore vaccines is being planned over the next seven months. So far, around 18 crore people have been vaccinated and this includes 14 crore who have got at least one dose of either Covishield or Covaxin. This means, only 4 crore people are fully vaccinated or who have got both the doses. But now, the pace of vaccination will be accelerated and in the next seven months, more than 250 crore vaccines will be produced, which will make it possible to vaccinate the entire adult population of the country.
Vaccinating 94 crore Indians
India has 34 crore people in the 45-plus age group for whom vaccination started early. Now from May 1, 60 crore more people were added to drive, who belong to the 18-44 age group. So far, no vaccine has been allowed for those below 18. As of now, India has to get 94 crore people vaccinated and for this, it needs around 188 crore doses of vaccine (two doses per person). The Zydus Cadila vaccine will have three doses—the vaccine will be available from July end. The second vaccine from Bharat Biotech will be a nasal vaccine and only one dose will be sufficient. As far as Covishield is concerned, its two doses will be administered in a gap of 12-16 weeks. The gap between the two doses of Covaxin is four weeks, while for Sputnik V, it is 21 days.
How Will Everyone Get Vaccinated?
The big question is—how will the 250 crore vaccines be produced to get the entire eligible population vaccinated when so far only 18 crore people have got the jab? Will the 18-plus population be fully vaccinated by the end of 2021? If it is done, then this will be a sort of a world record, especially given the need to maintain the vaccine at a certain temperature and use it within a stipulated period.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacting with scientists at Bharat Biotech. Courtesy: Special arrangement
To achieve this goal, the Modi government is ramping up the production of the vaccine. To encourage vaccine producers, payments have been made in advance. For example, Serum Institute was given an advance payment of Rs 3,000 crore on 19 April while Bharat Biotech was given Rs 1,500 crore for Covaxin.
Vaccine Makers Scaling up Production
Companies who are in the business of producing vaccines are set to increase their production, on a month-on-month basis. Serum Institute of India (SII) is going to increase its production capacity and will make 11.5 crore monthly doses available from September. In May, however, SII will supply only 1.7 crore doses of Covishield. Even Bharat Biotech is planning to increase its capacity and the government has provided the company necessary help. Apart from this, four companies—Indian Immunisation Ltd, Haffkine, BIBCOL and Gujarat Biotech—will also produce Covaxin.
Same is the case with Sputnik V. This vaccine from Russia is imported by Hyderabad’s Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL); from August it will be produced in India itself. DRL has purchased only 60 lakh doses of Sputnik V. It will ramp up its production, and with the help of six other companies, the monthly supply of this vaccine will be more than 7 crore by the end of December.
More Vaccines in the Pipeline
Apart from these three vaccines, few more vaccines will also be available in the country. These include Zydus Cadila’s three-dose vaccine ZyCoV-D and Johnson and Johnson’s Janssen vaccine, which will be produced in India by Biological E through technology transfer. Bio E will also start producing its indigenous vaccine and from September, more than 7.5 crore doses of this vaccine will be available in the country for use.
Betting Big on Gennova’s Success
A Pune-based company Gennova Biopharmaceuticals is also working on a COVID vaccine, with support from the Government of India. Gennova is producing vaccines using the m-RNA process. This vaccine will be similar to the ones developed by Pfizer and Moderna, which also use the m-RNA platform. Their vaccines are 10 times more expensive. If Gennova’s efforts are successful, then this would be a major achievement for the Indian scientists—if the virus mutates, then this vaccine could be used with slight modifications. It is believed that this vaccine, ‘HGCoV-9’, will be available for use from September.
Don’t Want to Depend Only on Pfizer & Moderna
The Government of India does not want to depend only on vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna because these two companies do not want to own any liability in case anything goes wrong after one takes their vaccine. This apart, their vaccines are also very costly. So, India’s negotiation with these companies has remained inconclusive. It is said that only private enterprises will use the vaccines produced by these companies, if they wish to do so.
A Step Towards Self-sufficiency
If the Government of India is successful in her efforts, it will make India self-sufficient. India will use its own vaccine to inoculate her population. Our dependency on foreign vaccines will be negligible, which will be a huge achievement for the Modi government.
No Delay in Vaccine Production
The Modi government has put forward its plan and the people of this country are now reassured. But a question that is being asked time and again is–why did it delay the vaccine production? If highly-placed sources in the Modi government are to be believed, such a claim is baseless. India had allowed the use of both the vaccines, Covishield and Covaxin, after phase 2 trials and did not wait for the outcome of the phase 3 trials.
On not stopping the export of the vaccine produced by SII earlier, Oxford-AstraZeneca, that owns the patent of this vaccine, had put a clause that certain quantities of the vaccine will be given to them as commitment under COVAX. This was not a huge quantity and only 6.5 crore doses were sent to 94 countries; of this, only one crore vaccine doses were given under diplomatic contract. India had stopped the export of vaccines after the second wave of the pandemic started peaking. This was the time when people were not coming forward to get themselves vaccinated.
Overcoming Oxygen & Remdesivir Supply Challenges
It is said that all is well that ends well. India has overcome the challenges of oxygen supply and Remdesivir injections within a few weeks. For example, where only 1000MT oxygen was available, the government arranged to supply 10,000 MT oxygen within three weeks. Private sector was roped in and cryogenic tankers were brought in with the help of Indian Air Force planes. Oxygen Express trains were run. Production of Remdesivir injections—only 25,000 vials were available daily earlier—was ramped up and by the end of April, 3 lakh vials were available on a daily basis. Compared to 25 firms earlier, 58 companies were now allowed to manufacture the injection.
Silencing the Critics
The government is going to show the same strength in ramping up vaccine production. After ensuring the supply of PPE kits and ventilators, by producing them in the country, the government also ensured the supply of oxygen and Remdesivir injections. And now, it has planned to get the entire adult population vaccinated by the end of 2021. Once the government delivers on its plan and successfully executes the largest vaccination drive on Earth, it will perhaps silence everyone who has questioned the Prime Minister’s silence.
The Prime Minister has put forward the roadmap—one only awaits its implementation over the next seven months.
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