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Last week has been one of the most politically eventful weeks for the fast-evolving developments in Punjab, one of the few big states ruled by the Congress party, which is also scheduled to go to polls in few months. Not many could have imagined that Captain Amarinder Singh, one of the most powerful chief ministers of the Congress, would be forced to resign under dramatic circumstances. Equally dramatic was the appointment of Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit Mazhabi Sikh as Punjab’s first Dalit chief minister. And while every one was still digesting the fast-changing political developments in Punjab, came the news of the resignation of Navjot Singh Sidhu as Punjab state Congress president. So, what do all these developments mean for the upcoming elections in the state of Punjab and what does it say about the health of the Congress party that seems to be jumping from one crisis to another.
The Congress party has been in a free fall since it lost the 2014 and then the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Its tally in the Lok Sabha has been reduced to less than three digits in two consecutive parliamentary elections. Although the Congress captured three crucial states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2018, it was not able to repeat the stupendous performance few months later in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Many political analysts saw this as a massive vote of approval and appreciation from the Indian electorate for Narendra Modi administration’s decision of conducting surgical strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
The state of Punjab was however an exception, where the Congress actually performed better in the Lok Sabha elections, which many attributed to the political charisma of Captain Amarinder Singh, the chief minister and powerful Congress leader from Punjab. So, what really happened that Captain Amarinder Singh soon fell out of favour with both the Gandhi family as well as the people of Punjab, which eventually pushed the state into such a messy political crisis just few months before the election?
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Most political analysts blame failure of Captain Amarinder Singh to deliver on his election promises like getting rid of Punjab’s massive drug addiction problem and the inaccessibility of the chief minister, even to his own party MLAs, as reasons for his growing unpopularity among the masses of Punjab. Navjot Singh Sidhu’s entry at the behest of the Gandhi family was believed to be facilitated largely to create a counter source of power within the Congress for disgruntled Congress MLAs, so that they don’t run away to opposition camps.
What eventually forced Captain Amarinder Singh to quit was the collective belief that the Congress may face massive anti-incumbency in Punjab state elections slated to be held in few months. What surprised many was the appointment of young Dalit Sikh MLA Charanjit Singh Channi as a short-term chief minister of Punjab in a state that has for several decades seen mostly Jatt Sikh chief ministers (except Giani Zail Singh, who belonged to an OBC caste). The appointment of a Dalit Sikh as CM did upset the political status quo as both Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sidhu found it difficult to play politics around the optics of Punjab having its first Dalit chief minister.
Charanjit Singh Channi, who many thought would be a lame duck chief minster for few months till next elections, when if the Congress rode to power Navjot Singh Sidhu would take charge as the CM, appeared to be more clever. He orchestrated appointments for the post of Advocate General of Punjab as well as some ministerial berths in such as way that it enraged Sidhu and compelled him to resign as Punjab state Congress president, a post to which he was appointed just few weeks back.
Charanjit Singh Channi appointed Rana Gurjit Singh, a controversial MLA who was earlier a cabinet minister in Captain Amarinder Singh’s government and was sacked on grounds of corruption. Sidhu was opposed to his reinduction in the Channi cabinet. Similarly, Channi appointed APS Deol as Advocate General of Punjab. Deol has in the past represented the Badal family in corruption cases. Navjot Singh Sidhu was opposed to appointment of both Rana and Deol and Channi knew this very well. Many analysts believe that Channi deliberately made those political appointments only to make sure that Sidhu, who is known to be a temperamental person, would get enraged and resign, thereby clearing the path for Channi to not only remain the chief minister of Punjab for the next few months, but also portray himself as a CM candidate on behalf of the Congress for next elections.
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Now all this unfolding political drama does not augur well for the health of the Congress party, which continues to be seen as a badly divided house that is incapable of providing stable leadership both within the party as well as in states where it is in power. This comes at a time when the major opposition party in Punjab, the Akali Dal, is badly discredited in the eyes of the people of Punjab due to its past association with the BJP that introduced farm laws, vehemently opposed by the farming community of Punjab. The Punjab unit of AAP, which is giving a tough competition to the Congress, however does not have a credible CM face and that remains its greatest weakness.
Hence, in view of such a weak opposition, to see infighting and chaos in the Punjab unit of the Congress party is really worrying as it impacts people’s perception of the Congress as a sinking ship that is unable to and not interested in saving itself. The plight of the Congress, when juxtaposed with how non controversially the BJP replaced three of its chief ministers in Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Gujarat without any disciplinary problems, shows that the Congress desperately needs to set its house in order, if it desires to provide credible competition to the BJP at a national level in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress is facing an existential crisis like never before and if it does not sort its issues, it may soon fade into political oblivion.
The author is General Secretary of People’s Democratic Front. He fought DDC elections from Beerwah constituency of Central Kashmir’s Budgam district. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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