As rains lash large parts of northwest India, far off in the south, conditions are becoming favourable for the formation of a cyclonic storm. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an early forecast of a cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal around May 9.
According to the weather department, the cyclonic circulation is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to develop over the same region around May 7, which will further intensify and concentrate into a depression on May 8. These are several stages leading up to the formation of a tropical cyclone in the north Indian Ocean.
‘Still too early’
The latest forecast suggests there is a good possibility of the system gaining more strength and turning into a cyclonic storm around May 9. Some models further show that it may intensify into a severe storm by May 10. However, it is still too early to predict, say scientists.
All the models indicate the cyclonic storm will move north-north-eastwards towards central Bay of Bengal till May 12.
This will be continuously updated, depending on the changing conditions of the ocean. “The details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of a low-pressure area. The system is under constant watch and being monitored regularly,” said the weather department.
According to IMD, the ocean conditions are currently very favourable for the formation of the storm and the associated cloud activity over the area. The tropical cyclone heat potential is more than 100 KJ/cm2 along the eastern coast of India and along the Myanmar coast. The sea surface temperatures are currently around 30-32°C over the Bay of Bengal.
Another spell of rain for north India on May 5
Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted a fresh spell of rain for north India, which has had a pleasant start to the hottest months of the year.
A fresh western disturbance is expected to impact the western Himalayan region on the night of May 5. It, however, may not be as strong as the current system, which has brought widespread rains for the northwestern states including Delhi.
As per the forecast, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over the Western Himalayan region and isolated to scattered rains over the plains of northwest India are likely after May 5 and the subsequent two-three days.
The rains have brought down the mercury 3-7℃ below normal over most parts of the country. In fact, Delhi recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 17℃ at Ridge on Tuesday along with Najibabad in western UP. There is a possibility of drizzles in a few places in Delhi over the next two days.
The weather department has ruled out any possibility of heatwaves over the next five days.
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