Amit Shah has set a goal of winning 25 seats for the BJP in Bengal in 2024. However, even if it maintains its 2019 super performance when it scored a massive 303 seats on its own, the BJP is not just unlikely to reach Shah’s ‘Mission 25’ in Bengal but drop to a mere single digit. And the reason behind it is simple — INDIA.
Data Speak
Recently, Bengaluru witnessed a surprising spectacle that shocked leaders of the Left front and Congress alike in West Bengal as Sitaram Yechury and Rahul Gandhi were seen sharing space with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. In fact, Gandhi was seen engaged in a deep conversation with Banerjee. This, while their respective state leadership accused Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress of perpetrating violence against their cadres that resulted in even deaths. But in Bengaluru, a decision was taken — “United we stand”. This effectively means natural progression to seat sharing in the coming days and weeks.
Here comes the googly.
News18 has done a post mortem of the 2019 Lok Sabha performance of all political outfits and found a startling fact. There are 14 parliamentary seats won by the BJP in 2019 where the collective votes polled for INDIA were more than that of the BJP candidate. However, since the Opposition fought separately, BJP won. A whopping 10 of 14 such seats are from West Bengal.
Simply put, if INDIA reaches the seat-sharing stage, BJP could lose as many as 10 seats in West Bengal even if it performs as well as it did in 2019. Last time, the BJP got 18 seats — a first for the party under then-state president Dilip Ghosh’s leadership. This will effectively mean the number will plunge to eight — single-digit and a far cry from ‘Mission 25’.
Union Ministers to BJP State Prez May Lose
Among those 10 seats — where if TMC, Congress, and the Left front fight together — are some high-profile names. They include Union minister of state for home affairs Nisith Pramanik who fought from the Cooch Behar Lok Sabha constituency last time. Pramanik was also believed to have been instrumental in convincing Rajbanshi leader Ananth Maharaj as the BJP chose to field him for the saffron party’s first Rajya Sabha seat from Bengal.
Union minister of state for ports, shipping, and waterways Santanu Thakur too may face an uncertain future as his Lok Sabha seat Bongaon falls under this list. Thakur is also the face of the Matua community that comprises a sizable chunk and is politically relevant in West Bengal — so much so that Prime Minister Narendra Modi virtually addressed them during the opening of ‘Matua Dharma Maha Mela’ last year.
BJP’s Bengal unit president Sukanta Majumdar, who recently met Amit Shah to complain about violence during the panchayat election in the state and whose team won pats from top party functionaries, including general secretary (organisation) BL Santhosh, may face uncertainty this time, suggests data processed by News18. His seat Balurghat also falls among the 10 high-risk seats that BJP may lose if INDIA reaches a seat-sharing agreement.
Other seats in the risky 10 are Bardhaman from where SS Ahluwalia won, Barrackpore from where Arjun Singh (now switched allegiance to the TMC) won, Bishnupur from where Saumitra Khan won, Hoogly that saw the party’s fiery woman leader Locket Chatterjee clinch victory and Jhargram which witnessed engineer-turned-politician Kumar Hembram’s win. Maldaha Uttar and Raiganj also feature in the list of risky 10 from where Khage Murmu and Debasree Chaudhury won respectively on the BJP ticket. Chaudhury was earlier in Modi’s council of ministers.
But, There’s A Catch
Though data never lies, politics is more often than not influenced by a variety of factors. First of all, INDIA constituents have to reach a seat-sharing agreement for this data to make sense. As of now, the Opposition hasn’t yet reached the stage of a common minimum programme.
In a state TMC swept back to power in 2021, it is highly unlikely that the party will be keen to cede even an inch to its national allies.
Moreover, the local leadership of the Congress and the Left front are furious with their national leadership’s decision to “ally” with someone they see as their political rival. Pradesh Congress spokesperson Koustav Bagchi earlier told News18, “It’s because of TMC that eight Congress workers were killed. We informed our leadership that we are not going to accept any alliance with TMC.”
The sentiments among Left leaders aren’t very different though they have not been as outspoken as Bagchi. So, even if INDIA reaches a seat-sharing agreement, for that to effect, the state leadership has to be on board, which doesn’t seem to be the case.
And finally, even if the state leadership is coerced into accepting any probable seat sharing between Congress, Left, and TMC in next year’s Lok Sabha election, the transfer of votes will remain a concern.
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