With 1 Lakh Daily Cases, 3rd Covid-19 Wave May Peak in October But Experts Point to Silver Lining

A study by a group of researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur have predicted that India is likely to witness another rise in Covid-19 cases in August with the third wave peaking with less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario.

The body of researchers noted that the surge in Covid-19 cases will push the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which may peak in October. However, they added that the upcoming third of Covid is less likely to be as brutal as the second wave where cases rose to 4 lakhs on a daily basis before slumping down again.

Talking to Bloomberg, the researchers whose prediction is based on a mathematical model said that states reporting a high number of Covid cases like Kerala and Maharashtra may play a significant role in skewing the case count during the third wave.

Earlier, in the month of May, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad had predicted that India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days based on the mathematical model. However, April’s prediction that the wave would peak by the middle of last month was incorrect. Taking to Twitter, the team of researchers had back then justified that it was because of incorrect parameters as “the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago.”

With the onset of Covid this wave, experts have now warned that the Delta variant, which spreads as easily as chickenpox and can be passed on by vaccinated people, can fuel the surge. According to data from the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), nearly 8 of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June, and July were caused by the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus.

India reported 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths on Sunday. The Centre has currently directed 10 states, including Kerala, Maharashtra, and northeastern regions to take steps to arrest the spread of the coronavirus.

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