News18 Mega Exit Poll: BJP May Triumph in Telangana with 7-10 Seats, Congress Runner-up with 5-8

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may come out on top in Telangana’s Lok Sabha polls, with a News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting 7-10 seats for it out of the 17 in the southern state. The state’s ruling Congress may get 5-8 seats.

Others, including the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), could bag 3-5 seats.

Polling and turnout

The Telangana Lok Sabha election took place on May 13, with voters turning out in significant numbers across the state.

The state registered an overall voter turnout of around 53 per cent, with many areas crossing the 50 per cent threshold.

What happened in 2019

In the 2019 elections, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now BRS) came out on top with nine of the 17 seats and a vote share of 41.71%. The BJP bagged four seats with a vote share of 19.65%.

While the Congress got 29.79% of the votes, it netted only three seats. The remaining seat went to the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) with a vote share of 2.80%

Exit poll methodology

The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for phase 7.

A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with an inked finger per household. In the case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.

On-spot checks by senior field managers and executives, geo-tagging of interviews, and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.

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