March-May Period Likely to be Warmer Than Normal, Says IMD

New Delhi: The months of March, April and May are "likely to be warmer than normal" over northwest, west, central and parts of south India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday in its summer forecast.

Above normal heat wave conditions are also likely in the core heat wave (HW) zone during the season (March-May), it said.

"There is about 43 per cent probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during March to May 2020 to be above normal," the IMD said.

The core HW zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and parts of Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The forecast indicates that the average temperatures from March to May are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celsius over northwest, west and central India and parts of south India.

The season's average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by 1 degree Celsius over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh.

It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (HCD), west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, north interior and coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures, the IMD said.

Since 2016, the IMD has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model.

The seasonal temperature forecast outlook for the period of March to May 2020 has been prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the initial conditions of February.

Currently, warm (El-Nino) ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates cooling of sea surface temperatures in the coming season and ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue for the entire forecast period, the IMD said.

El-Nino is associated with the heating of Pacific waters.