THRISSUR: A recent market study indicates that the coconut price is likely to firm up in the short term,and is likely to remain steady, capped at a range of Rs 19 to Rs 23 per kilo, for the next three months.The study was conducted by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of Kerala Agricultural University(KAU). The model price of partially dehusked coconut in Thrissur market was ruling around Rs 17 per kilo in October. The econometric analysis is based on the monthly prices of partially dehusked coconut at the market during the last 12 years.The spurt in the price is attributed to supply demand mismatch and global recessionary trends. The 7 percent drop in coconut-oil imports from the Philippines, during January-September period this year, was because of the tight supply of copra in its domestic market. Reports from the Philippines attribute it to fatigue of the trees after three successive years of good yield, and the two typhoons that ravaged the country this September. Shortage of coconut in Thailand, owing to drought and widespread coconut-hispine-beetle infestation, has hit the coconut economy hard. This has forced the importers to source from Indonesia. Besides, from 2000-01 onwards there has been a drastic decline in the area under coconut cultivation in Kerala, the major coconut producing state in India. The demand-supply gap in the state had been traditionally met through the imports from Tamil Nadu. However, the advancing North-East monsoon in major coconut growing districts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will hamper the harvest. Also, intermittent rains are likely to hinder the conversion process of the nuts to copra. The labour availability due to the Sabarimala season will also push up the price.A strong dollar is a deterrent to large scale import of edible oils, especially in view of robust estimates for most rabi-edible-oil crops in the country.Thus, prices are expected to firm up till January end, when the next season starts. However, there are a few pull factors also. The most important being the tight global macro economic situation, signaled by a weakening economy of eurozone. Recessionary trends are visible in India also. The preference of the bio-diesel industry for soybean-oil-based diesel to coco-diesel, especially in view of good a soybean yield in the US and its weak export demand, may lower the price. Coconut oil’s price differential with palm oil is encouraging households to switch their loyalties. The demand for tender coconut is waning on account of advancing winter season.
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