New GDP Figures Have Economists Surprised, Cautious
New GDP Figures Have Economists Surprised, Cautious
The new GDP estimate, which shows demonetisation had little or no impact on the growth trajectory of the country, has prominent economists surprised, while one speculated the growth in financial services thanks to the drive to go cashless may have offset other shortcomings.

“It is a surprise... a pleasant surprise and I will have to look at the numbers carefully,” said NR Bhanumurthy, an economist with the National Institute for Public Finance and Policy.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) on Tuesday estimated that the economy will grow at 7.1% in the fiscal year 2016-17. Tuesday’s release was the ‘second advance estimate’. The first advance estimate was released in January of this year.

“I am not imputing any motives here. They must have worked with the data they had, but there are a lot of mysterious things in these numbers,” Rao told News18.

However, Sen felt there were three reasons that could have helped the economy. The first was that tax collections in November and December were good. The second is that industrial production did not suffer too much and the third is that agriculture will probably grow faster this year than last year.

Bhanumurthy said that the reason for the higher than expected growth could be that financial services could have grown at a faster pace because the withdrawal of cash may have forced people to switch to cashless means, pushing up the growth rate of the sector.

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